For all of President Trump’s recent polling woes, his reelection could always count on his historically strong base to show up on Election Day. But recent polling suggests a growing softness with those voters Trump depends on the most.
A new survey from the University of California, Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies shows the president reaching new lows with voter approval in California. There was never a question that presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden would handily carry the largest state in the country on Election Day. Yet Trump’s numbers there indicate a phenomenon likely being replicated across the country: Some of his most reliable supporters are slowly drifting away.
According to the study, the former vice president leads Trump in California by a whopping 39 percentage points, at 67% to 28%. In 2016, Hillary Clinton earned 61.5% of the vote, but in July of that year, she was earning just 46% of the vote.
Trump’s job performance rating in the state, which generally hovered in the mid- to low 30s, is now at 29%. In the state’s Inland Empire, which generally counts more right-leaning voters than uber-liberal cities such as Los Angeles or San Francisco, the president’s job approval has plummeted 8 points from January, at 43%.
And Biden’s above-water approval rating, 56%, comes in part from Californians who identify as “somewhat conservative.” Biden earns the support from roughly 25% of California voters who identify as “somewhat conservative,” whereas Trump’s support from those who identify as “somewhat liberal” is close to zero. Many of those who identify only partially as liberal or conservative count themselves as independent voters.
And in a state such as Pennsylvania, those voters partial to voting Republican are in the process of swinging toward Biden as well. A Monmouth poll of the state last month showed that 12% of registered Republicans are planning on voting for Biden. Only 1% of self-identified Democrats say they were planning on voting for Trump. Independent voters favor Biden as well by 21 points, 54% to 33%.
Left-leaning Public Policy Polling also saw Trump’s voter base softening, with 43% of those in Michigan saying they currently back the president, compared to the 45% of those who say they backed him in 2016. Much of that loss is due to Trump’s poor performance with independents, but self-identified Democrats have surged in the state.
Across the country, Democrats enjoy an 11-point advantage with voters who say they identify with the party. Currently, 32% of people identify with the Democratic Party, and 18% lean in the party’s favor, totaling half of the entire electorate. Just 39% currently identify with the GOP, according to a Gallup survey this month.
Just six months ago, the GOP held a narrow party affiliation advantage over the Democrats, with 47% of the country saying they identify or lean toward the Republicans. July’s numbers constitute a 5-point jump in favor of the Democrats.
With fewer voters identifying as Republicans, Trump’s consistent high job approval among the party may look increasingly misleading. Although 91% of Republicans approved of Trump’s performance in July, according to Gallup, a significantly lower number of those surveyed would have identified as a member of the party.
