Democratic presidential hopefuls have crisscrossed Iowa for months, some for more than a year, in hopes of winning support on Monday evening’s Iowa caucuses.
The exercise is a unique — and to some outsiders, bizarre — method of voters choosing their picks to be the presidential nominee. Unlike primaries or general elections where ballots are secret, Iowa’s Democratic caucuses are a public, interactive display of presidential candidate preference.
The Democratic caucuses are organized and run by the state party rather than the state government, and several changes were added this year aimed at improving transparency and encouraging participation. Party officials are preparing for a high turnout that may break the 2008 record of nearly 240,000 caucus-goers. About 172,000 showed up to caucus in 2016.
The process on caucus night
On Monday night, caucus-goers show up by 7 p.m. CT at one of 1,678 traditional precinct locations across the state — usually, a school, church, or other community location — or one of 87 new “satellite caucus” locations across the globe for Iowans out-of-state who cannot show up at their home precincts.
Representatives for the Democratic presidential candidates at each location will give speeches in favor of their candidates, hoping to win support from the attendees. Some campaigns may not have representatives at every location, but those that do demonstrate strong organizing power.
Caucus-goers then physically move into groups to demonstrate support for a candidate, or to show they are “uncommitted,” and record their choices on a piece of paper. This is the first alignment.
Campaigns, however, need support from 15% of attendees to be “viable” and earn delegates to the Democratic National Convention.
The RealClearPolitics average of Iowa polls show Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden could be comfortably above that threshold at 24% and 21%, respectively, but other candidates might have a tougher time ensuring viability.
Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg is at 16.7%, Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren has a 14.8% average, Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar is at 8.8%, and other candidates are in low single-digits.
The process then moves to an often-lively realignment phase.
Unlike previous years, those who chose a candidate that receives 15% support on the first alignment are locked in and cannot change their preference. They can either stay to watch the realignment process, or they may leave the caucus and go home, their votes recorded on a slip of paper.
Voters who chose candidates with below 15% support have options. They can either join a viable candidate group and lock in their support, join with another campaign under 15% to make that candidate’s group viable, convince other voters to join their group to make their own candidate viable, join an “uncommitted” group, or they may simply go home.
The voters record their preferences on paper, reflecting the final alignment.
In previous years, the realignment process could go on for many rounds and take hours. This year, the process is streamlined, and caucus-goers have only two opportunities to declare their presidential preference.
Results and what they mean
The Iowa Democratic Party will report four figures from caucus results.
- National convention delegates for each candidate.
The Democratic presidential nominee is decided by who wins the most delegates to the party’s national convention in July, with each state and territory having varying numbers of delegates based on population and the party’s strength in that state. There are 3,979 pledged delegates total, and a candidate must secure 1,991 delegates to win on the first ballot — otherwise, party leader “super delegates” will be able to vote.
Iowa has 41 pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention allocated based on the results of the caucuses, 27 of which are allocated based on results in each of the four congressional districts and 14 that are allocated based on statewide results.
- State delegate equivalents for each candidate: The number of projected state party convention delegates each candidate receives based on caucus results. There are 2,107 state delegates. The state delegate equivalent figure has historically been used by news organizations to declare a “winner” of the caucuses and percentage won.
This year, for the first time, the Iowa Democratic Party will report raw vote totals.
- First alignment: The number of votes each candidate received from caucus-goers in the first preference round, which will provide insight into support for candidates who do not make the 15% viability threshold.
- Final alignment: The number of votes each candidate received after the realignment phase, reflecting movement in the room.
The new figures could change the dynamics of how campaigns project their success in the caucuses.
Because some delegates are assigned based on results in congressional districts rather than statewide, there is a possibility that one candidate receives more votes but fewer delegates than a competitor, similar to the Electoral College system in the general election.
If a candidate comes close to viability in the first round but does not win any delegates, it could help them argue that there is enough enthusiasm for their campaigns to stay in the race longer than they otherwise would without that figure.
Importance of Iowa
Iowa accounts for less than 2% of delegates to the national convention, but it has an outsized influence on choosing Democratic presidential candidates because it is the first state to hold a nominating contest. Candidates sink millions of dollars into organizing efforts in the state in order to have a strong showing in Iowa, which demonstrates a candidate’s viability and can translate into fundraising and grassroots momentum through future state primaries and caucuses.
Since 1972, most Democratic presidential candidates who won Iowa went on to claim the Democratic presidential nomination, while no candidate who placed below third has.
State law and Democratic Party rules mandate that Iowa be the first nominating contest, followed by New Hampshire on Feb. 11, Nevada on Feb. 22, South Carolina on Feb. 29, and then many states start on “Super Tuesday,” March 3.
Some — including former Housing secretary and dropout presidential candidate Julian Castro and former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who is not competing in Iowa — argue that Iowa should no longer be the first state in the process in part because it does not reflect demographic diversity in the party. White people who are not Hispanic or Latino make up about 60% of the United States as a whole, but about 85% of Iowa’s population, according to the Census Bureau.
Proponents of keeping Iowa first argue say that Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status encourages candidates to build a grassroots operation and puts attention on rural communities, argue that Iowans do a good job thoroughly vetting presidential hopefuls, and point out that the first four states together reflect electorate diversity.
