A year-long study by a team of Army War College students has concluded that NATO’s conventional military forces are insufficient to deter Russian aggression in Europe.
The five lieutenant colonels and one colonel concluded that NATO’s readiness has eroded to the point where it “lacks the capability to defeat a surprise Russian conventional attack into the Baltic States or Eastern Europe.”
Their findings, based on interviews with dozens of U.S. and allied officials, will be published by US Army War College Press in a book titled, “Strategic Landpower and a Resurgent Russia: an operational approach to deterrence.”
The research project was supported by both the U.S. European Command and U.S. Army Europe, and paid for with Army funds.
The study found that while a Russian advance into alliance territory with conventional forces is “the most dangerous scenario facing the West,” the prospect of a direct attack on NATO is remote.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will more likely use what the authors call “an indirect approach using ambiguous warfare to fracture the Alliance.”
The report says Putin has shown a propensity to act just below the level of aggression that would trigger a military response under NATO’s Article 5, which deems an attack on any one of NATO’s 28 member nations as an attack on all.
The report concludes Putin is liable to target what both the Russia and NATO see as the center of gravity of the alliance: the commitment of all members’ collective defense.
“While it is unlikely these actions would actually fracture the alliance, they would certainly be disruptive and would put a strain on alliance members.”
The report recommended the Army establish a rotation plan so that a U.S. armored brigade combat team “provides continuous presence of armor in Europe.”
That is something the Pentagon is already doing under its European Reassurance Initiative.
The authors also conclude that NATO’s top commander needs greater flexibility to reposition forces in Europe to respond to Russian moves, as well as streamlined approval for “counter-Russia” actions.
Despite the frosty relations and high level of distrust between NATO and Russia, the report nevertheless suggests the alliance reinitiate dialogue with Russia.
The study will be published here.
