Projected slowdown in hiring threatens pandemic recovery

Fewer firms are looking to add new workers in the fourth quarter, according to polling released Monday, making it harder for the economy to regain the millions of jobs lost in the pandemic.

On net, only 1% of respondents expect to increase hiring in the fourth quarter, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics, down from 6% the quarter before.

“The employment picture is less rosy, with many firms still holding back on wage and staff increases,” said Holly Wade, NABE’s survey chairwoman and the director of research and policy analysis for the National Federation for Independent Business.

Wade said that the worsening picture for hiring is due to the uncertainty businesses face with the pandemic.

“The uncertainty element of it will persist until the health crisis is more resolved,” she said.

More than two-thirds of respondents noted that they have imposed hiring freezes to cope with the uncertainty caused by the pandemic, according to Lester Jones, a NABE survey analyst and chief economist for the National Beer Wholesalers Association.

“It’s a pretty good indicator for how people feel about the workplace,” he said.

The economy is over seven months into the pandemic, and layoffs are still widespread, as gauged by jobless claims remaining at historic levels. Over 780,000 workers claimed unemployment benefits for the week ending Oct. 17, about four times the pre-pandemic level.

In addition to claims for regular benefits, more than 345,000 workers filed new claims for the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program for the week ending Oct. 17. The program provides unemployment insurance for people sidelined by the pandemic who normally wouldn’t be eligible for regular benefits, such as gig workers whose business dried up. Combining both regular and PUA claims, roughly 1.1 million jobless workers filed for relief that week.

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