At the Washington Examiner, Michael Barone offers an excellent analysis of why John Kasich’s continued presence in the Republican presidential race enables Donald Trump, even as many Republicans and Republican-leaning pundits try to avoid facing up to this reality. In a piece entitled, “Only Ted Cruz Can Stop Donald Trump,” Barone writes the following:
“Can Donald Trump be stopped from winning the Republican nomination? The answer is yes….
“‘If the anti-Trump voters can find a better way to coordinate behind one candidate,’ writes Harry Enten in fivethirtyeight.com, ‘they can probably beat Trump in a lot of upcoming contests.’ The obvious candidate for whom Republican voters can vote to stop Trump from getting to 1,237 is Ted Cruz. The only alternative is John Kasich, who has won only in his home state….
“On Tuesday night, an ebullient Kasich said he was going to Philadelphia, though Pennsylvania’s primary is April 26, six weeks hence. The obvious reason: the Philadelphia suburbs have lots of upscale voters, the only demographic among which Kasich has run well.
“But the Philly suburbs cast only about one-fifth of Pennsylvania primary votes. In Ohio, despite his local popularity, Kasich lost every county along the Pennsylvania and West Virginia borders. He’s likely to do worse against Trump in demographically and attitudinally similar western Pennsylvania, which casts as many votes as the Philly suburbs….
“His boosters look to New York, which votes April 19. But its registered Republicans are less likely to be Ivy Leaguers liberal on cultural issues (they’re Democrats now) than Italian-American homeowners angry about high property taxes and corrupt local governments. Cruz might be competitive with Trump among such voters. Kasich would just split the vote and give Trump more delegates, as he did in Illinois.
“The final big contest is California on June 7. What happens there if the anti-Trump vote is split can be seen by looking back to 2008, when California voted early. John McCain won statewide with 42 percent, with the more conservative Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee getting 35 and 12 percent. But most California delegates are chosen winner-take-all by congressional district, and with split opposition McCain carried 48 of the 53 districts and thus won 155 of 170 delegates.”
Read the whole thing here.
