Russia has one more casualty from the war it started with Ukraine: its airline industry.
From landings banned around the world to fleets of American-made planes with no way to get parts, Russia’s aerospace sector could soon become akin to a Cold War relic.
“With Western lessors also looking to repossess jets that are operated by Russian carriers, the Russian aviation sector is now on a footing that is similar to North Korea and Iran — and similar to where it was under Soviet rule,” said analyst Rob Stallard of equity research firm Vertical Research Partners.
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Richard Aboulafia, managing director of the strategy firm AeroDynamic Advisory, told Al Jazeera that “Russia will be the world’s largest country with a developed economy and an aviation industry no better than North Korea’s,” as the country will need to redo its fleet, currently built on Western technology.
Boeing and Airbus, which supply much of Russia’s air sector, have cut off the sale of replacement parts. The planes are primarily owned by Western leasing companies, which have until March 28 to end their contracts and seek return of the planes, Reuters reported.
While such a scenario could exist on paper, actually retrieving the planes would become a difficult situation due to challenges in Russia and the ability to fly them into banned airspace and airports.
“What are the odds they can be repossessed?” Aboulafia asked.
Boeing and Airbus have supplied 70% of Russia’s 880 aircraft, the Financial Times reported. Foreign owners have 515 planes in the country, worth a total of about $10 billion.
Meanwhile, beginning today, the country’s flagship airline, Aeroflot, has suspended all foreign flights other than those with Belarusian destinations. Russia has also put a stop on flights from smaller carriers with foreign planes due to the possibility that they could be seized outside the country.
The first reported instance of this was March 2, when lessors tried to seize an Aeroflot jet in Cairo. The attempt failed, as the jet escaped in the pre-dawn hours, Air Current reported.
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Ticketing technology company Sabre has also joined the war effort by banning Aeroflot from its system. Chief Executive Sean Menke said he is considering going a step further by locking Aeroflot out of additional technology such as pre-flight planning and balancing the weight of passengers, fuel, and cargo.
“We are taking a stand against this military conflict,” he told the Financial Times.
