The U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union could send the United States searching for a new “best friend” when it comes to national security partnerships, according to some analysts.
While England will remain a close ally of the United States despite the “Brexit” vote, experts have suggested that no longer being a member of the European Union could weaken the importance it plays as an ally to America because it would lose much of its power to influence other European allies.
“It’s not that Britain will no longer be important to the U.S., but a Britain outside the European Union has less leverage over European policy and therefore, even if it shares the same interest and policy objectives as Washington, it is not going to be able to achieve those goals vis-a-vis Europe on its own,” said Jeff Rathke, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
This could send the U.S. searching for a new ally to partner with on issues specific to the European Union, which would likely create an opening for Germany to step up and fill the void, James Goldgeier, the dean of the School of International Service at American University, said during a call hosted by the Wilson Center this week.
“I do think that if the U.K. leaves the EU, it’ll simply accelerate the process of increasing Germany’s importance to foreign policy and decreasing the U.K.’s,” he said.
Other potential partners for the U.S. include Italy, Poland or Spain, if elections put a stable government in place that’s willing to work with the U.S., Rathke said.
“The U.S., on issues where we’re working alongside the EU, would have to turn to its partners there,” he said. “It’s not certain there’d be one specific country that would replace Britain, but the U.S. would have to work with like-minded partners issue-to-issue within the EU.”
Withdrawing from the European Union could also cause the U.K.’s international ambitions for a global leadership role to diminish.
Rathke stressed that Britain will still be committed to mutual defense if a NATO ally is attacked, but may be less likely to take proactive steps with the alliance, like the one it took recently when it committed to contribute four NATO battalions stationed in eastern Europe.
“Would Britain be as ready and as quick to take those kinds of steps in the future?” Rathke said. “If it goes through an acrimonious divorce with Europe, that’s an answer that’s hard to predict.”
Other analysts suggested that while a departure from the European Union could cause temporary disruptions in America’s national security relationship with Britain, any lasting impact would be minimal.
“After all, we were close with Britain long before it joined the EU,” said Michael O’Hanlon, an analyst at the Brookings Institution.
Defense Secretary Ash Carter in Brussels last week urged the U.K. to remain part of the European Union because of the strategic value it provides as a member of the larger group.
“Here at NATO, we know the strategic value that unity and cohesion brings to our alliance. It’s part of what makes the whole greater than the sum of the parts. The same is true for the EU,” Carter said during the last day of NATO’s defense ministerial. “For the greater unity and cohesion each organization has, the better they’re able to work together in the ways that we discussed at dinner last night, and that makes a strategic difference.”
A United Kingdom that is not part of the European Union has national security consequences beyond its relationship with the United States. Max Boot, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote that Baltic States could be at risk of more aggression from Russia if the European Union alliance is weakened, even though they all have protection under NATO as well.
Among NATO members, the United Kingdom is one of only three that spends the recommended 2 percent of its gross domestic product on defense, a pledge all members are striving toward. Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, wrote that the Brexit could cause the British economy to tank, thereby giving them less money to funnel into defense.
It’s unclear how the Brexit will impact the American defense industrial base, which both sells to and partners with U.K. organizations. For example, the British Royal Air Force and Royal Navy are planning to purchase 138 F-35B variants from Lockheed Martin.
BAE Systems, which has its headquarters in the United Kingdom, builds some platforms the U.S. military, including as a principle sub-contractor on the F-35. The defense giant also won a $103.7 million contract last year to build prototypes the Marine Corps’ newest amphibious combat vehicle.
Roger Carr, BAE Systems chairman, said that while any impact from lost sales would be “very small,” a more real risk would be the Brexit reviving a motion in Scotland, where BAE Systems builds its warships, to also exit the European Union, the Wall Street Journal reported.
