Over at the New York Times, Nate Cohn throws cold water on the notion that 2016 is going to be a landmank year for the GOP:
But if a wave doesn’t materialize, and if Republicans don’t post victories in Democratic-tilting states like Iowa or Colorado, it will be hard to consider 2014 a great year for Republicans. That will be true even if they take the Senate by taking advantage of a favorable map. The Republicans don’t need more evidence of their ability to win with low Democratic turnout in states like Louisiana and Alaska heading into 2016. Fortunately for the G.O.P., there are still more than three months to go.
Aside from Cohn’s specious assertion that “the economy and the deficit are both in a better place than they were in 2010” his whole analysis here is pretty sound. Cohn’s right — the question about this election is not whether or not the GOP can take back the Senate, the structural advantages Republicans enjoy make that pretty likely. The question is, will they be able to carry any gains won in this election past the next election cycle. In 2016, the GOP map won’t be nearly as favorable. Turn out will also be much higher in 2016, as there is a good chance a popular Democratic presidential candidate will be at the top of the ballot.
Given Obama’s fecklessness in the face of global conflagrations and domestic unrest, a lot could change between now and November. But for now, there’s no strong evidence of a GOP wave big enough to carry the party past 2014.
