President Trump is poised to go face-to-face with a Congress that just impeached him and is still putting him on trial, a historic confrontation providing an opportunity for the president to build a narrative for his ardent supporters that Democrats tried to take him down and failed.
Not since President Bill Clinton appeared before Congress as the Monica Lewinsky scandal broke in 1998 has there been a State of the Union better set for an atmosphere of sizzling tension.
During the address Tuesday night, which will sound as much like a campaign speech as a report on how things are going in the country, Trump can tout the expected acquittal Wednesday by the Senate as a triumph over what he and other Republicans say was an attempt to reverse the 2016 election results while promoting his achievements as well.
“He should spend the night juxtaposing his focus on security and prosperity with the Democrats’ focus on partisanship,” Brad Todd, a Republican strategist, told the Washington Examiner. “He should dare them to impeach him again and say he has the broad shoulders to take it — but note that the country would be better off if they work with him.”
Trump’s reelection strategy is focused on turning out his base, which wants to hear just such a message.
Democrats are expecting as much, though it is not yet clear how much Trump will use impeachment to pound the other party. It would fit the president’s pattern of squabbles with his opponents, whether Democrat or Republican. Of course, the hostility is shared. Most Democrats are convinced that Trump endangered national security for personal gain when he temporarily withheld $391 million in military aid from Ukraine to pressure Kyiv to investigate political rival Joe Biden.
“A lot of his communication is predicated on ‘demonize and divide’ rather than ‘unite and build,’” said Sen. Bob Casey, a Pennsylvania Democrat who anticipated that Trump would use the State of the Union to gloat.
The pomp and circumstance of a State of the Union offer presidents a unique opportunity to speak to the nation. Throughout the evening, the commander in chief benefits from repeated standing ovations from fellow partisans, plus the unwritten rules of decorum that compel the opposition party to sit silently.
The scene could be especially helpful to Trump, a polarizing figure, as he embarks on an uncertain reelection campaign.
Low unemployment, trade deals, the neutralization of American enemies overseas, and the absence of a major domestic or foreign crisis should make Trump the 2020 favorite. “He doesn’t have to make a single thing up. The state of the union is really, really strong,” Sen. Kevin Cramer, a North Dakota Republican, said. “That would be a great message.”
But even with some of the highest job approval ratings of his presidency and having convinced a bare majority of the public that impeachment was unwarranted, Trump is vulnerable because of broad dissatisfaction with his personal conduct. Trump still trails some of the leading Democratic contenders in national polls and is neck and neck with them in key battlegrounds.
That is why several Republican insiders, from senior strategists to members of Congress, are urging Trump to stick to the script. The White House says the word “impeachment” is not in the text of the speech, and the president’s allies are hoping he resists the impulse to ad-lib, as is his habit, and use the State of the Union to jab at Democrats and celebrate an impeachment victory.
“I hope he keeps it all very positive and doesn’t talk about impeachment at all,” Sen. John Cornyn of Texas said. “He ought to come here like a winner.”
