Republicans and Democrats have largely focused on taking down their major party opponents during the road to Election Day. But a number of third-party and independent candidates are poised to siphon votes away from them.
Despite their low chances of electoral victory, this group of “spoilers” is shaking up the playing field and could shift the outcome of the midterm elections. Here are some of the third-party candidates to keep an eye on throughout the day.
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Oregon governor’s race
Although Oregon is a solidly blue state, the governor’s race there has been deemed a “toss-up” by election forecasters after third-party candidate and former state Sen. Betsy Johnson entered the ring.
Johnson’s name on the ballot threatens to split the electorate between herself, a onetime Democrat, and liberal Tina Kotek, giving Republican contender Christine Drazan a path to victory. A GOP victory this year would mark the first time a Republican won control of Oregon’s governor’s mansion in roughly four decades.
Polling has been tight between Kotek and Drazan, but the Democratic candidate has been leading in most major polls as late as Monday. Kotek has a 3-point lead over Drazan, but Johnson is still polling at 8%, according to the Cook Political Report.
Georgia Senate race
One of the most consequential Senate races of the midterm cycle, the contest in Georgia could very well determine which party seizes control of the upper chamber.
Under Georgia law, if neither Sen. Raphael Warnock nor Republican Herschel Walker garners more than 50% of the vote, the top two candidates are forced into a runoff election, something the Peach State experienced for both of its highly contentious Senate elections in 2020. The entrance of libertarian candidate Chase Oliver threatens to drag the contest into the same scenario in November.
If Oliver garners even 1% or 2% of the vote, it could deny both Walker and Warnock the chance to nab the majority, forcing them into a Dec. 6 runoff.
Recent polling shows Walker leading Warnock by 1 percentage point, with 47% saying they’d vote for Walker, compared to 46% who said the same for Warnock, according to the aggregate. Other polls in the state have Oliver getting anywhere from 1% to 5% of voters, but more have him receiving on the lower end.
Pennsylvania Senate race
The Pennsylvania Senate race between Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz is another high-profile election that is set to determine party control of the Senate in November.
Despite having no chance of winning the majority vote, libertarian Erik Gerhardt’s presence in the race threatens to take crucial votes away from the candidates as they compete in a dead heat. A total of five candidates will appear on the ballot for Senate in Pennsylvania.
Oz is leading in the race, according to RealClearPolitics. But a recent poll from ABC27, Emerson College, and the Hill found Gerhardt garnering 1.6% as of Nov. 3. Both other third-party candidates polled at less than 1% combined.
Kansas governor’s race
Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly is facing Kansas Attorney General Derek Schmidt in the gubernatorial race. But the entrance of former Republican-turned-independent state Sen. Dennis Pyle has shaken up the race.
Pyle left the GOP this summer to run for governor, with ads that accuse Schmidt of being “too liberal” and touting Pyle as the “real conservative,” according to the Cook Political Report.
The race’s final Emerson College and the Hill poll shows Kelly leading Schmidt by 5 points, 49%-44%, but Pyle is taking 5%.
Arizona Senate race
A Libertarian candidate in the Arizona Senate race could have upset the main election this year. Libertarian Marc Victor was polling 5% of the vote before he dropped out last week.
Victor was allowed to participate in the debate last month, and he was highly critical of Republican candidate Blake Masters. However, he endorsed Masters after he dropped out. Masters is facing incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), who is leading with 48% of the vote, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Victor’s name will still show up on the ballot, according to the Cook Political Report, because he dropped out only a week before Election Day.
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Republicans are widely expected to take control of the House, while control of the Senate is viewed as much more competitive.
