Better-than-expected revenue projections for the current fiscal year have given Arlington County and Alexandria officials modest hope that the worst of the recession is behind them.
Alexandria’s revenue estimates are up $9.19 million for fiscal 2011 now that city officials expect a rise in property values come January. The city is projecting a 1.7 percent increase in revenue over the previous budget year. Earlier, officials thought this year’s revenue would decrease by 4.5 percent.
In Arlington, revenue projections are up $13.8 million because of an expected 1 percent growth in property value in 2011. Officials had previously expected property values to remain flat.
“We certainly see it as we’ve hit rock bottom, and hopefully we’re coming back,” said Mark Schwartz, deputy county manager in Arlington.
Arlington and Alexandria officials won’t know until January just how much property values have increased, and they are each still anticipating shortfalls in their 2012 budgets, but officials said they are encouraged to see signs of growth.
“The real estate market is such a tremendously large part of our revenues,” said Bruce Johnson, Alexandria’s chief financial officer. “Those had been declining for the last several years, so getting back up above zero is reassuring for the future of the city’s finances.”
The new projections are likely to mean that Alexandria’s budget shortfall would be less than the $7.7 million gap previously predicted, Johnson said. The city may see next year’s revenues jump by as much as $19.2 million if the projections prove accurate, though the city’s expenses also could increase, he said.
“We’re still thinking of it as a flat budget, meaning we can’t spend on anything new unless we find cuts elsewhere,” Johnson said. “But we don’t necessarily have to cut to survive.”
Arlington County expects a budget gap of $25 million to $35 million in 2012, even with the increase in property values, Schwartz said.
Fairfax County officials will present their new revenue estimates when the Board of Supervisors meets Tuesday.
