The Democratic Party has nominated a candidate starkly different in terms of race, culture and ideology from the swing voters needed to reclaim the White House. As it happened, the party did so in a process that deepened those very weaknesses.
But from the sound of things, Democrats are thrilled about how it all worked out.
Some are even positing that Hillary Clinton has made Barack Obama a better candidate by tuning him up for the general. That’s like saying Gen. Sherman got Atlanta ready for urban renewal.
But for a party that prides itself on the mastery of identity politics, having the first black nominee edge out the first serious female contender in history amounted to having the best workplace diversity seminar ever.
The result of pushing the envelope, as Democrats have been reminded so often, is usually a kiss off from undecided voters, who are generally the kind of people who hate the guy who leads the diversity sessions at work.
And there’s no doubt that looking at the electoral map today, Republicans have reason to be a little less panicky than they were before.
In a year when the GOP had more than earned a second consecutive pummeling because of profligate spending, a muddied message and still more ethics problems, John McCain is still considered viable.
While McCain is helped by being a “maverick,” it’s the nature of the Democratic nominee and the way he was selected that are keeping Republicans above water for now.
But if John McCain tries to beat Barack Obama head on, the electoral map will look a lot bluer very quickly.
First off, it’s reasonable to expect that in the weeks to come, the worshipful media coverage Obama is likely to receive will help him reclaim some of the voters who defected because of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, Obama’s remarks about bitter small-towners and other primary stumbles.
McCain, essentially even with Obama today, can expect to trail nationally by 15 to 20 points by the end of July.
The electoral count based on state polls, which slightly favors McCain today, will probably put him about 30 electoral votes behind Obama as August begins.
So the McCain organization is plotting a strategy not to get ahead of Obama now but to stay in the game long enough to be able to mount an early fall comeback.
And Tuesday night should have been instructive for them. When McCain tried to horn in on the Democratic superstar’s spotlight, he flopped. Badly.
McCain’s message wasn’t objectionable, and highlighting the GOP’s own rising star, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, was a good thought.
But McCain’s performance was wincingly awkward, and worse still, he didn’t seem to be enjoying himself.
The intermittent and unnatural smiles he squeezed out just made things worse.
But however badly the Tuesday event went, the campaign’s Wednesday play was brilliant.
By challenging Obama to a series of town hall debates over the summer, McCain may be able to trap a superior orator into competing on more equal ground.
Obama hasn’t debated well, even when George Stephanopoulos wasn’t biting at his ankles.
And McCain did a creditable job in the seemingly unending string of Republican primary debates, at least when he wasn’t snarling at Mitt Romney.
When Hillary Clinton challenged Obama to an absurd number of debates, she was acting out of desperation.
By proposing a mega debate schedule when he and Obama are still neck and neck, McCain appears to be making a high-minded appeal.
And Obama, believing that he can charm his way out of most tight spots, no doubt figures that he could handle crabby old McCain.
It might be Obama’s first misstep of the general election.
