SENATOR JOE BIDEN wants to save Iraq by dividing it–sort of. The speech Biden delivered Wednesday morning to the Council on Foreign Relations elaborated on the “five-point plan” he first laid out in a New York Times op-ed (co-written with CFR president emeritus Leslie Gelb) last May. Biden spoke soberly, intelligently, and persuasively. His proposal is deeply flawed. But unlike many Democrats who simply carp and criticize, Biden is offering a genuine strategy for stabilizing Iraq prior to U.S. withdrawal.
Using Bosnia as a rough template, the thrust of the Biden plan is simple: Iraq would be carved into three mostly autonomous regions–a Kurdish north, a Sunni center, and a Shiite south. Each region would be responsible for its own internal security and its own domestic laws. Iraq’s federal government would handle issues of “common interest,” such as oil revenues, border defense, and foreign policy. Although technically within the Sunni bit of the country, Baghdad would remain a multiethnic city. “The Iraqi constitution calls for Baghdad to be the unified capital,” said Biden.
Earlier this week on PBS, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Republican Richard Lugar, hinted at such an approach. “It may not be an absolute division of the country into three parts,” Lugar said, “but at least some ways in which the Kurds, who already have a great deal of autonomy, are joined by a lot of Shiites that want the same thing and Sunnis that are worried that they’re going to be left out of the picture.”
Which gets to the second plank of the Biden plan: allocating oil revenues. “Federalism will only work if each group believes that it has an economic stake in a unified government,” Biden stressed. “Oil can–and should–become the glue that binds this country together.” Sunnis ruled the roost under Saddam, but federalism might leave them without access to Iraq’s natural wealth. Most Iraqi oil can be found in the Kurdish north and the Shiite south. That gives Sunnis a powerful incentive to oppose decentralization.
Biden wants to amend the Iraqi constitution so that each ethno-religious group would receive oil money proportionate to its share of the population. Under this rubric, Sunnis would get about 20 percent. Why would Kurds and Shiites sign off on such a deal? Biden argues that an oil-sharing accord is crucial to boosting production and investment. So it’s better for their “bottom line.”
Third point: Biden wants to “ramp up” reconstruction aid for Iraq, with help from our Gulf allies, but he wants to link it to protection of minority rights. He cites a persistent lack of electricity generation, sewage treatment, and potable water. These failures have aggravated the sense of frustration among Iraqis.
Fourth, he calls for a regional conference to produce a “non-aggression pact” on Iraq. He doubts either Damascus or Tehran wants to be drawn into an Iraqi civil war that might morph into a regional conflagration. “It’s not in Syria’s interest, it’s not in Iran’s interest,” said Biden, who believes America should engage the Iranian regime “directly.”
Fifth, the Biden plan suggests a phased redeployment of American forces beginning this year, with most U.S. troops withdrawn from Iraq by the end of 2007. A small U.S. contingent would be left behind to train Iraqi soldiers, take out terrorist havens, and concentrate the minds of Iran and Syria. But Biden does not think the U.S. should establish permanent bases in Iraq.
There is much to quibble with in the Biden scheme. It does not explain how to resolve disputes over multiethnic cities like Baghdad and oil-rich Kirkuk, other than to add more police. It would not quell the bloody sectarian strife currently ripping apart the Iraqi capital. It might allow al Qaeda to hunker down in Anbar province. And it sets an arbitrary timetable for U.S. departure–never a wise move when insurgents and militias seem eager to wait us out.
Biden also assumes that Shiite Iran fears a “regional war” more than it fears a Shiite-led democracy right next door. But according to Middle East expert Michael Rubin, Iranian agents have been infiltrating and subverting post-Saddam Iraq since the spring of 2003. A thoroughly decentralized Iraq might encourage Tehran to absorb the Shiite south as a de facto province. Either way, it is doubtful that a diplomatic “conference” would stop Iran (or Syria) from meddling in Iraq if they saw advantage to be gained.
All of that said, the Delaware senator also keenly appreciates that Iraqi democracy must include a strong dose of federalism. “Our plan is not partition,” Biden insisted on Wednesday. “In fact, it may be the only way to prevent a violent partition and preserve a unified Iraq.” The next year or so, and the ability of U.S. and Iraqi forces to stanch sectarian violence and suppress the insurgency, may determine whether Biden is correct.
Duncan Currie is a reporter at The Weekly Standard.
