TAIPEI, Taiwan — Chinese General Secretary Xi Jinping’s expected success at a major party congress masks latent “challenges from within,” according to Taiwanese officials wary of Beijing’s saber-rattling.
“Obviously, Xi Jinping is trying to get anointed his third term and probably for life from then on,” a senior Taiwanese official said. “I think he’s also meeting some challenges from within. He is basically breaking the pattern of 10-year rule and [then a] change [of] leadership. So there’s some resistance, from within, for him to become to continue as president of China or president of the party.”
Nevertheless, Xi is expected to secure a rubber stamp to the extension of his tenure at a Chinese Communist Party congress in October, an outcome that seems assured in part by the elimination of potential rivals throughout his career. His extraordinary success makes for a marked contrast with domestic frustration over China’s “zero-COVID” restrictions and the country’s apparent economic struggles, with uncertain ramifications for the risk of war over Taiwan.
“Our assessment is that before the 20th Party Congress there will not be many struggles within the CCP, but there will be — after the 20th Party Congress,” Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Minister Chiu Chui-Cheng told reporters this week through an official interpreter. “After the 20th Party Congress, if the economy of China continues to decline, and the unemployment situation continues to worsen, people will question him.”
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Chiu addressed a group of reporters invited to Taipei as the government makes the case for Taiwan’s membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, a free trade agreement linking 11 economies across the Pacific Rim and the Americas. Officials in Taiwan hesitate to comment too precisely on Chinese Communist internal politics, but the economic pressures and security risks remain entangled on both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
“Deng Xiaoping and Hu Jintao achieved economic growth of over 9% and they only served two terms, but Xi Jinping is seeking the third term with his economic growth of 3.8% this year,” Chiu said, referring to Xi’s predecessors. “So people would question him for his legitimacy. … Therefore, there will be stronger struggles and opposition within the CCP. Our assessment is that that will happen after March next year.”
The conversations occurred against a backdrop of expanded Chinese military activity around Taiwanese territory in the weeks since House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) visit to the island democracy, culminating in Taiwan’s decision to shoot down an unmanned aerial vehicle (presumed to be a civilian drone linked to Beijing) that approached a Taiwanese-controlled island near the Chinese coast on Thursday.
“I would expect [China] will respond first with some harsh rhetoric and then possibly with another kind of asymmetric escalation, like sending a military UAV directly over one of Taiwan’s military installations,” former U.S. Pacific Fleet intelligence director Jim Fanell told Voice of America. “In the most provocative case, the Chinese Communist Party may even direct the PLA to send a military UAV over Taipei.”
This week’s sorties coincided with an announcement Tuesday that the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party will begin on Oct. 16. This convocation, an every-fifth-year affair, will see party officials choose their leader for the next five years — a vote that Xi is expected to win in pro forma fashion.
If Taiwanese officials agree that economic struggles will eventually put political pressure on Xi, they can be found to offer divergent assessments of whether those economic factors might enhance or constrain his willingness to use against Taiwan.
“Their financial trouble is actually quite serious,” the first senior Taiwanese official said. “That might impede them from engaging in a major military scenario.”
Yet Chiu, the mainland affairs deputy minister, cautioned against assuming that Xi’s simply will follow apolitical military advice when deciding whether the time is optimal to launch an offensive.
“A more important thing is China’s intention to annex Taiwan, and that is a political issue,” he said. “They might want to use annexing Taiwan to resolve their Xi Jinping’s legitimacy issue. … And plus, they have, frantic nationalism within the country right now. Therefore, using Taiwan as a target is in line with their benefits.”
The other official touted President Joe Biden’s repeated statements that the United States would defend Taiwan as a weight on Xi’s mind, especially in light of Russia’s struggles in the invasion of Ukraine. “The PRC has to calculate very carefully, because it’s a make-or-break deal for China also,” the first senior Taiwanese official said.
Chiu likewise argued that international displays of support for Taiwan might convince Xi that a military campaign is a greater risk to his rule than any domestic discontentment.
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“We have to let China know that if they try to annex Taiwan, they will have to pay a very high price,” he said. “However, if the international community does not pay attention to the Taiwan Strait or does not offer Taiwan support, Taiwan will face very high risks. The crisis might happen anytime, but we will do our best to delay the time, and we hope it will never happen.”
