Well, I don’t know how you feel, but it seems fitting to me that the day after this year’s Iowa caucuses is Groundhog Day (and not because of the animal’s resemblance to the thing that sits on The Donald’s head). Just like Phil Connors in the 1993 Bill Murray-Harold Ramis classic, we find ourselves waking up to an eerily familiar scene. You can almost hear the late Sonny Bono’s adenoidal refrain coming through the clock radio.
Just compare Monday night’s result in the Republican caucus to the result four years ago. Three men finished clearly ahead of the pack, and within shouting distance of each other: Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, and Marco Rubio now; Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney, and Ron Paul then. One is a religious firebrand (Cruz/Santorum), one the presumed establishment candidate (Rubio/Romney), and one a crackpot who has no business even being in the race (Trump/Paul). Sure, the order of the second and third place finishers might have flipped, but by all measures, Rubio’s third is a better finish than Trump’s second.
And look at the Democratic side. Last night’s result proves yet again what we learned in Iowa back in 2008, a truth about Hillary that the Democratic party has willfully ignored at its own peril: People will vote against her when given an alternative. In 2008, they had a very reasonable one in the form of Barack Obama, but 2016 has shown the alternative doesn’t even need to be all that reasonable. It says a lot about Hillary that Bernie Sanders, the 74 year old socialist-fringe curmudgeon (who did this), not only tied the former first lady, but overcame a large polling deficit in such a short period of time. He also delivered a highly engaging (if not a bit unhinged) speech, while Hillary shrilled her way through yet another dispiriting evening in her lifelong quest for power.
So, what can last night’s result tell us about the future of the race? Well, I’ll leave prognostication to those more suited to it. Like Punxatawney Phil. The famous groundhog did not see his shadow this morning, which means an early spring is on its way. One can only hope more problems for Hillary and the demise of the Trump campaign come with it.
