Attacks from armor-piercing roadside bombs that the U.S. military has linked to Iran have fallen roughly by half since June to fewer than 40 last month, the U.S. military reports. The decline likely stems from a cease-fire called by radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr during the summer and progress in attacking cells that plant the bombs, said Air Force Col. Donald Bacon, a Multi-National Force-Iraq spokesman. The number of attacks from explosively formed penetrators, or EFPs, include those discovered before they detonate as well as those that explode.The U.S. military has said most are supplied by Iran. The EFPs are primarily used by Shiite extremists and are not generally associated with al-Qaeda, a Sunni group. The Bush administration accuses Iran’s Shiite regime of funding, training and equipping Shiite extremists in Iraq. Iran has denied any ties to militants in Iraq. It is not clear whether the drop in EFP attacks means Iran has pulled back its support for militants in Iraq, said Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq. “We hope that this is a reflection of Iranian structures stopping doing what they were doing,” Petraeus said in a weekend interview with USA TODAY. However, the military has “seen some individuals who have trained (in Iran) fairly recently,” Petraeus said.
It’s pretty clear that the sharp decline in violence in Iraq is the combination of two distinct trends. The first is the decimation of al Qaeda forces in Anbar, either by desertion or Coalition force of arms. What was once the most violence province in Iraq has become one of the safest, and the commander on the ground there has gone so far as to say those gains are permanent. The other story seems to be the reduction in violence among Shia militias. The reasons for that are less clear–did al Sadr call a ceasefire out of weakness, or did he do so in order to preserve his capabilities until after the surge has subsided? Is this drop in EFP-related casualties a deliberate attempt by Iran to reduce the violence in Iraq, or is it merely the product of more effective Coalition operations against the Special Groups and rogue elements of the Mahdi Army? It isn’t entirely clear what the answers are, but if violence spikes in Iraq, with the Sunni insurgency just a shadow of its former self, it will be hard to avoid the conclusion that Iran is stoking the fire.
