Both political parties have spent a whopping $32 million on obscure, low-turnout Virginia state Senate races — making today’s election the most expensive in state history. The deluge of money, as well as personal appearances by President Barack Obama, former President Bill Clinton and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, indicate that Virginia has become a national bellwether. And while Republicans are expected to win control of the chamber this time, tonight’s victory celebrations must be tempered with a warning. If Democrats, who currently control the state Senate 22-18, lose just two seats, Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling will cast the tie-breaking vote. And Republicans have many additional advantages: popular Gov. Bob McDonnell, who is under consideration as a possible vice-presidential nominee; 12 unopposed seats (compared to the Democrats’ four); and, thanks to redistricting, a good shot at two new open seats in Northern Virginia and Richmond.
It’s astonishing how fast the political landscape has changed since 2008, when Obama won Virginia by a landslide. Independents have largely abandoned the president, and his approval rating in Virginia has dipped below 50 percent. Even more telling, members of his own party are backing away from his record.
First-term Sen. George Barker, D-Alexandria, elected in 2007 by a 761-vote margin, is in danger of losing his seat to constitutional lawyer Miller Baker, who has been hammering Barker over his record of voting for tax increases. But Barker’s intentionally vague TV ads make him sound like a conservative Republican. Democratic incumbent Sen. Yvonne Miller, D-Norfolk, who is running unopposed, still felt the need to reassure her constituents that “Obama does not sit in Richmond.”
Winning the state Senate would further boost McDonnell’s political stock. The conservative governor already enjoys high approval ratings for balancing the budget without a tax increase, while keeping unemployment in the state well below the national average. But as Obama and the Democrats learned to their dismay after just two years in office, total control of the executive and legislative branches is a two-edged sword. It makes it much easier to pass bills, but the hubris it breeds also sows the seeds for future electoral losses.
No doubt a GOP-controlled legislature will enable McDonnell to complete his ambitious agenda — which includes a long-overdue restructuring of the state’s underfunded retirement system, education reform and development of the state’s energy resources. But victory in today’s volatile political landscape comes with a warning label: Don’t get cocky, because the same voters who give you a majority in this election can take it away just as easily in the next.
