Fairfax County’s budget gap is expected to top $350 million in fiscal 2010 as the housing market continues to suffer, budget staffers have told supervisors.
While shortfall projections can fluctuate widely, the figure is the first hard number assigned to a deficit that planners predict will be far harsher than the one seen this year or the next.
The figures worry county officials, who today will approve a budget and 3-cent tax increase for fiscal 2009, which begins July 1. They plan to then immediately begin confronting 2010’s dismal forecast.
It could mean program and agency cuts that run far deeper than those ordered in recent months. The drop will also shrink the board’s stormwater and affordable housing funds — which depend on a penny of the real estate tax — and set off rancorous debate among competing budget interests and supervisors.
“We’re going to be going to budgetary war next year,” said Lee District Supervisor Jeff McKay, a Democrat.
Fairfax County schools received $40 million more from the Board of Supervisors than last year, but that increase could vanish in 2010 due to the shortfall.
“We’re very concerned,” said Leonard Bumbaca, president of the Fairfax Education Association. “The school system is looking at a $28 million shortfall for this year, and we’re concerned that our salaries are going to fall farther behind in real terms.”
Fairfax County budget makers began planning for the coming fiscal year with a $120 deficit in mind, but that gap widened by more than $50 million due to rising fuel costs, and dwindling revenue from taxes, investments and other sources.
“We have a bit of time before we actually will know what the specific numbers are” for fiscal 2010, said Supervisor Sharon Bulova, the board’s budget chair. “But what our staff is saying right now, and this is no surprise, is that they expect it will continue to see a decline in property values into the next year.”
The drop in real estate value is expected to be as high as 10 percent, the staffers have informed supervisors. County Executive Anthony Griffin is scheduled to offer a firmer revenue picture on Aug. 4.
