We heard today from an experienced campaign hand whose judgment we at TWS have come very much to respect:
People I’ve talked to since the debate can’t imagine Kasich, Walker, Huckabee, Carson or Paul getting the nomination. Kasich and Walker in particular were hurt badly if not fatally in the last 24 hours. And the same folks think neither Cruz nor Trump could win unless it were a year any Republican could win.
I’d expect Christie and Rubio to get a fresh look after last night, and Carly to vault in primary polls–maybe even to the lead.
Jeb is looking more like McCain 2008 to me (early frontrunner manages to recover after trouble and wins the nomination), but he could be Hillary 2008 if Carly or Marco becomes the Obama figure. Christie still strikes me as a bit too sharp-edged to go the distance.
The challenge for Marco or Carly in terms of emulating Obama is that they don’t have a built in primary base of support like he did. So it would be harder for them.
I have to really hand it to Carly. She had four big moments in a debate with 11 people on stage:
–The answer on Trump’s comments about her.
–The answer on replacing Hamilton with a woman (probably she was the only one who could have done that).
–The answer about Planned Parenthood.
–The answer about losing a child to addiction.
–She would have had a fifth if she had fleshed out her answer on her Secret Service nickname. Had she pointed out that she was once a secretary before saying Secretariat, it would have topped all the others.
I’m not sure that Carly could win in a tight race, though, because of political inexperience, big business, HP firing etc. My impression is she didn’t close well against Boxer.
Still, Carly’s a contender, along with Jeb and Marco–and maybe Christie, although I have doubts and suspect the GW Bridge was not an isolated event.
Finally, I suspect Trump is bleeding a lot today too even if it doesn’t show in the polls yet. He was smug, dismissive, mean etc. It won’t play forever.
I’d expect Christie and Rubio to get a fresh look after last night, and Carly to vault in primary polls–maybe even to the lead.
Jeb is looking more like McCain 2008 to me (early frontrunner manages to recover after trouble and wins the nomination), but he could be Hillary 2008 if Carly or Marco becomes the Obama figure. Christie still strikes me as a bit too sharp-edged to go the distance.
The challenge for Marco or Carly in terms of emulating Obama is that they don’t have a built in primary base of support like he did. So it would be harder for them.
I have to really hand it to Carly. She had four big moments in a debate with 11 people on stage:
–The answer on Trump’s comments about her.
–The answer on replacing Hamilton with a woman (probably she was the only one who could have done that).
–The answer about Planned Parenthood.
–The answer about losing a child to addiction.
–She would have had a fifth if she had fleshed out her answer on her Secret Service nickname. Had she pointed out that she was once a secretary before saying Secretariat, it would have topped all the others.
I’m not sure that Carly could win in a tight race, though, because of political inexperience, big business, HP firing etc. My impression is she didn’t close well against Boxer.
Still, Carly’s a contender, along with Jeb and Marco–and maybe Christie, although I have doubts and suspect the GW Bridge was not an isolated event.
Finally, I suspect Trump is bleeding a lot today too even if it doesn’t show in the polls yet. He was smug, dismissive, mean etc. It won’t play forever.
