To many Republicans, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is merely a conservative by convenience, shaped by the prevailing political mood of the day rather than conviction to the cause.
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But with Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s abysmal debate performances — punctuated by the “oops” debacle last week — and accusations of sexual harassment swirling around businessman Herman Cain, Republicans are reconciling themselves to the idea of voting for Romney, according to party insiders.
“The Perry gaffe and the Cain publicity issues have definitely given many voters who might have been unsure about this election more confidence in Mitt Romney,” said Republican strategist Brian Donahue. “All signs point to Mitt Romney carrying the greatest momentum into the caucuses and primaries.”
A former Romney campaign adviser put it more bluntly: “I know Mitt would hate me saying this, but it’s over. His closest competition can’t count to three, and then the next guy has one woman problem after another. Republicans have no other choice.”
Big-money donors and other Republican establishment figures — notably New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie — are increasingly moving into Romney’s column. The candidate has courted kingmakers like David and Charles Koch in recent days, as well as other major GOP players to create an aura of inevitability.
That sentiment is reinforced by the fact that nearly one in two Republican voters assume that Romney will win the party’s nomination, according to a new Gallup survey. Yet, roughly half of those respondents said they supported Romney.
The public perception of Romney as a shoo-in has been reinforced by the inability of his rivals to grab the mantle of the anti-establishment candidate. Republican voters have embraced one candidate after another, searching for an alternative. But all have fallen through because of organizational ineptitude, fundraising shortages, and self-inflicted wounds.
Though Perry’s downfall has been the most dramatic, he is far from alone.
Michele Bachmann surged after winning the Iowa Straw Poll in August only to be eclipsed by Perry and a string of mishaps and false statements that alienated even her most loyal supporters. Former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, another centrist chief executive from a blue state, wilted under the public spotlight when he failed to challenge Romney’s Massachusetts health care plan during a New Hampshire debate — and his campaign never recovered.
Despite a recent bump in the polls, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has been unable to overcome a staff rebellion, lackluster fundraising and personal baggage, including two divorces, that left some social conservatives questioning his electability.
Then there’s Cain, the Georgia businessman accused by at least four women of sexual misconduct, who has only a fraction of the $15 million Romney and Perry each have and lacks an effective organization in early-primary states.
Still, Romney’s support has not passed the 25 percent threshold in most polls, indicating that despite his commanding debate performances and steady day-to-day operations, many are still waiting for a savior of sorts.
“Romney’s like the guy your mother wishes you would marry,” said Dennis Goldford, a political scientist at Drake University in Des Moines, Iowa. “You don’t really want to; you keep looking for your Prince Charming. The big fight in Iowa still is for that label.”
Romney, who originally planned to skip the Iowa caucuses, is now weighing whether to start an ad blitz there in hopes of scoring an early knockout against the floundering Cain and second-tier Gingrich. However, Romney’s support remains static in Iowa, and GOP insiders there say he’s avoided the retail politicking necessary to carry a state in which he was embarrassed during his first presidential run four years ago.
“How can people say he’s inevitable considering the absolute chaos that is enveloping the other leading contenders — and he still can’t seal the deal?” asked Mark Corallo, a Republican consultant involved with Fred Thompson’s 2008 presidential bid. “Clearly, the conservative base is not happy with Romney. If they were, it would be over by now.”
