Northern Virginia’s decade-long minority population boom hardly assures the region will become a safe haven for Democratic candidates, despite conventional political wisdom linking the trends, analysts say. Some voters in blocs seen as traditionally Democratic have conservative characteristics, for example Hispanics who embrace Catholicism or small-business-owning Asians. But to bring them into the Republican fold, the GOP must prove itself more welcoming, according to political experts. “The biggest mistake for the Democrats would be taking for granted the support of these groups,” said Mark Rozell, a George Mason University political scientist. “If the Democrats believe they can succeed with the new immigrant populations simply by not being Republicans, I don’t think that’s a prescription for their long-term success.”
Area Republicans agree with that assessment.
“That minorities will go Democrat is not necessarily true at all,” said Jeffrey Frederick, the state’s first Republican Hispanic legislator and one-time chairman of Virginia’s Republican Party. “But for far too long we’ve done a very poor job showing these populations that we, as Republicans, have an interest in having them as part of our efforts,”
Genaro Pedroarias, chairman of the Virginia chapter of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly, has recently reorganized and increased efforts to promote involvement in Northern Virginia campaigns, he said.
In the area’s right-leaning far-western suburbs, Hispanic residents in Loudoun County increased by 282 percent to nearly 39,000 since the 2000 U.S. census, and in Prince William by 198 percent to more than 81,000. Asian residents quadrupled in Loudoun to about 46,000, and nearly doubled in Prince William to more than 30,000, according to census figures released Thursday.
Among Asian residents, from Chinese-Americans to Pakistanis, many are better educated than typical immigrants, said Jay Bhandari, president of Virginia’s chapter of the Global Organization of People of Indian Origin.
“They are thoughtful voters, and conscientious of priorities such as education and the economy,” he said. “You can never claim they are 100 percent Democratic or Republican.”
Bhandari agreed, however, that for Republican candidates to gain traction — especially among the younger generation of Indian voters — they must reach out and be inclusive.
“Gov. Bob McDonnell came out and celebrated Diwali,” a major Indian festival, Bhandari said. “Many Indians supported him because he supported them.”
