Migration surge expected to continue unless Harris convinces Guatemala and Mexico to take immediate steps

In Guatemala and Mexico this week, Vice President Kamala Harris is meeting with leaders who might help stem the historic surge of migrants to the southern border, which has been a thorn in the White House’s side as it faces criticism from political foes and Central American officials. But without the very “tangible steps” she described Monday, experts say the flow of migrants heading north won’t be slowed.

The visit is Harris’s first foreign trip as vice president, a sign, she told Guatemalan President Alejandro Giammattei, of the priority that the Biden administration is placing on the region.

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“It is in our collective interest that we work together,” Harris said on Monday, adding that, on issues of importance to both sides: “First among them, [is] migration.”

Harris and White House officials have said that driving down corruption, enforcing existing immigration laws, sparking economic development, and sharing coronavirus vaccines will help address that goal. So it’s no surprise all of those issues are on the agenda for the vice president’s meetings.

These so-called root causes are “the medium- to long-term vision,” said Cris Ramon, a migration consultant.

However, in the immediate term, Ramon said securing measures to address the number of migrants arriving at the southern border will likely be a priority.

The United States has reached informal agreements with Guatemala and Mexico, but greater enforcement by those countries to slow the flow toward the southern U.S. border could further stem the number of migrants heading north.

Mexico has sought to maintain a level of independence from the U.S. on immigration management and immigration enforcement, even while working closely with this administration and the last, Ramon said, focusing on informal arrangements.

A “formal, concrete agreement with Mexico … would be a major breakthrough,” he added.

In Guatemala, Giammattei criticized the U.S. approach in an interview that aired shortly before Harris’s arrival in the country. Attributing the surge in migration to “root causes” in a migrant’s home country isn’t accurate, the Guatemalan leader said. He added that the two “are not on the same side of the coin.”

The president instead blamed the new administration’s posture, which he said was more welcoming to migrants.

“The message changed too: ‘We’re going to reunite families. We’re going to reunite children,'” he said in a CBS News interview Sunday. “The very next day, the coyotes were here organizing groups of children to take them to the United States.”

“We asked the United States government to send more of a clear message to prevent more people from leaving,” he added.

When President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of Mexico made similar remarks earlier this year, the White House pushed back.

Calling President Joe Biden the “migrant president,” Lopez Obrador charged that the new administration’s asylum policies, including a vow to unwind former President Donald Trump’s hard-line approach, were boosting migration and crime.

Harris will meet with Lopez Obrador on Tuesday as apprehensions along the U.S.-Mexico border continue to spike.

During a press conference with Giammattei in Guatemala City on Monday, Harris delivered a stronger message to people considering the journey.

“I want to be clear to folks in this region who are thinking about making that dangerous trek to the United States-Mexico border. Do not come. Do not come,” the vice president said. “The United States will continue to enforce our laws and secure our border.”

The White House has focused its attention on a range of governance issues it says drive people to leave their homes, and experts say that cooperation with Guatemala, Mexico, and other countries in the region will be key to delivering results over the long term.

“We will continue to have mass migration to our country if the situation doesn’t change in Central America,” said John Sandweg, a former senior Homeland Security official, including during the Obama administration. Another tactic is clamping down on criminal organizations and smuggling networks in the U.S., which Homeland Security and Justice Department officials are pursuing.

The White House has also committed coronavirus vaccines to the Northern Triangle countries, $4 billion in development aid, $310 million for humanitarian relief, and has shepherded a dozen companies and organizations to invest in the region.

Harris has said “injustice is a root cause of migration,” reflecting the White House’s position that public corruption and governance issues are fundamental to people seeking to leave.

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Guatemala has faced criticism for censuring an international anti-corruption commission from operating in the country in 2019, while civil society activists say Lopez Obrador has attacked government watchdogs.

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