President Joe Biden is wading into the California recall election, calling on voters to back Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom in a race the White House wants to avoid turning sour for a top blue state ally.
How directly Biden gets involved in the Sept. 14 contest is an open question. While a source familiar with the president’s planning hinted at more public statements and a possible campaign stop, White House involvement may come too late, as ballots are already in the mail.
Newsom is “key” to advancing the administration’s Build Back Better agenda, Biden said in a Thursday tweet.
“He knows how to get the job done because he’s been doing it,” Biden said in a longer statement.
On Friday, Newsom told reporters he expects Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris — a former San Francisco district attorney, California attorney general, and senator — to help his campaign in the state shortly.
“We’re comparing schedules right now, but we do anticipate vice president [and the] president to be out here in a matter of weeks,” Newsom said.
The White House is expected to lead a full-court press to hold the governor’s seat, the Washington Examiner has learned.
“We are working on potential in-person events for both the president and vice president,” said a source familiar with Biden and Harris’s planning. “Both [are] taking an active role over the next month.”
Last month, Biden went to stump for former Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe, who is seeking a nonconsecutive second term, leading a Friday night rally before retiring for the weekend to Wilmington, Delaware.
NEWSOM SAYS HE’S PROUD OF OUT-OF-STATE PEOPLE ‘B****ING’ ABOUT CALIFORNIA
Because the party could lose a Democratic stronghold like California should raise alarms, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., a firm that provides voter data to campaigns.
“Correct or not, it’s going to be the only tea leaves people can read,” Mitchell said.
By contrast, a win for Newsom “could serve to calm a lot of the folks worried about 2022,” Mitchell said. “The impact of this recall as a bellwether has to be recognized by folks in D.C.”
Ballots for the recall began arriving in some Los Angeles County mailboxes this week.
“I have staff in L.A. who have already voted,” Mitchell said. “The election is happening.”
Among the challenges for Newsom is stoking enthusiasm among people in an election off-year, as few have taken the race seriously.
“It’s been portrayed as a circus,” said Steven Maviglio, a longtime Democratic political consultant in the state, but “the numbers have changed.”
As Newsom faces tougher odds, Democrats “need participation right out of the gate,” said Rob Stutzman, a Republican strategist in the state. “You’re going to get it from the pro-recall side because they’re energized.”
A host of prominent Democrats have stepped into the race, including Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who is featured in a 30-second television advertisement that ties the recall proponents to former President Donald Trump. After voicing support for Newsom back in March, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders is also poised to play a bigger role.
Despite Harris’s California roots, Stutzman was skeptical the vice president “moves the needle much more than Elizabeth Warren.”
“The time is now for Democrats to optimize their ‘get out the vote’ efforts, which means using the president,” he said.
Biden “certainly would be helpful,” he said. “So would former Gov. Brown, by the way.”
Former four-term Gov. Jerry Brown, an often quixotic Democrat, criticized Newsom in an interview with a local NBC affiliate last month, calling the state’s spending “not sustainable” and voicing concern about the federal government spending “wildly.” But on the recall, Brown has remained out of sight and sources speculated Newsom, a one-time rival for the governor’s office in the 2010 cycle, would be reluctant to ask for his public support.
On Friday, Newsom issued a warning to Democrats while speaking about Larry Elder, a talk radio host who has gained considerable traction in the race.
“He’s to the right of Donald Trump … Who would he have appointed to replace Kamala Harris in the U.S. Senate? How would that have impacted the future of this country?,” Newsom said, warning of “Elder running away with this on the other side.”
The recall against Newsom grew in part from how he has managed the coronavirus pandemic, with frustration over shutdowns and changing guidelines for reopenings reaching a fever pitch when the governor was pictured dining at a Napa County restaurant at the height of the pandemic. While the semi-outdoor setting followed the letter of California’s coronavirus rules, it blew past the spirit, for which Newsom later apologized.
“There’s consequences if a Republican wins,” Maviglio, a former press secretary to recalled California Gov. Gray Davis, told the Washington Examiner this week. Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, 88, “might have had retirement plans, or there might be a health issue. And then an appointment of a U.S. senator by a Republican governor could tip the balance” in the upper chamber of Congress. Right now, the Senate holds a 50-50 split between parties.
Surveys show a shrinking margin of victory for Newsom, with more than half of likely California voters pushing for his exit, according to a RealClearPolitics average that has the campaign to remove Newsom ahead by two percentage points.
A poll conducted Aug. 2-4 by Survey USA for the San Diego Union-Tribune, shows voters favoring the recall by an 11 percentage point lead, 51% to 40%. The same poll in May showed voters opposed to the recall by an 11 percentage point lead, 47% to 36%.
However, Democrats in California hold a nearly 2-to-1 party registration advantage over Republicans.
Republican operatives are divided over Newsom’s possible ouster.
“I don’t think Newsom is going to survive this,” one former Trump White House official said as the Newsom campaign stepped up its public engagement this week.
Stutzman said Newsom might beat the recall, but a slim margin of victory could see him emerge “weakened” as he heads into a reelection battle next year.
Newsom’s rivals in the race are eager to replace him, with Elder surging to the front, boosted by Republicans donors. Former Olympian Caitlyn Jenner, whose entry caused a stir when she announced it on Twitter in April, had raised less than $1 million through July, according to the latest state campaign finance filing.
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After pausing her campaign to fly to Australia to film Celebrity Big Brother, Jenner returned to California this week, announcing a reboot.
“Nobody can save Gavin Newsom or cover up the years of hurt he has caused Californians,” said a Jenner campaign spokesperson. “This recall is happening and we will end Gavin’s reign of terror once and for all. Caitlyn is the only candidate in this race who has the electability to bring all Californians together.”
