President Trump flew to France for the G-7 summit on Friday night having already disrupted planning for the annual gathering of the heads of the world’s biggest economies.
This time, there will be no joint communiqué, following last year’s debacle when Trump withdrew his backing for an agreed statement with a tweet from Air Force One venting his fury at “dishonest” Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as Trump flew home from Canada.
This year’s host, President Emmanuel Macron of France, is taking no chances.
“I know the points of disagreement with the U.S. If we draft an agreement about the Paris accord, President Trump won’t agree,” he said this week. “It’s pointless.”
With one potential flashpoint averted, there are still plenty of ways for Trump to blow up the summit. Here are six.
Iran
The first wedge issue could come over dinner on Saturday night, when foreign policy will be on the menu at the first substantive event of the summit. Rising tensions between Iran and the U.S. are certain to be on the menu.
European allies remain united behind the Iran nuclear deal abandoned by Trump last year, and British and French officials have been briefing this week that nothing has changed in their position.
As if that was not enough, Macron held talks with Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Iranian foreign minister, on the eve of the summit as part of a European initiative to prop up the deal. In contrast, the U.S. imposed sanctions on Zarif, including limits on his movement, for implementing Iran’s “reckless agenda.”
NATO
Trump has repeatedly harangued NATO allies on their commitment to spend 2% of gross domestic product on defense. Germany is proving a particular laggard. Its spending is projected to fall to 1.3% in the early 2020s.
A senior administration official said Trump would press the matter in a bilateral meeting with Angela Merkel, the German chancellor.
“They will be discussing European security and the importance of all countries meeting NATO’s 2% of GDP defense spending goal,” he said.
Digital tax
Trump will also not shy away from raising his frustration with Macron over France’s “highly discriminatory” digital services tax, according to the official. Trump has previously threatened tariffs on French wine in retaliation.
France wants the other leaders to join it in a global system of levies to prevent Big Tech from avoiding taxation through the virtual nature of their businesses. Washington has made clear it sees the moves as penalizing U.S. commercial success.
“This is a barrier to achieving progress in a global regime on digital services, and it’s highly counterproductive at this time,” said the administration official.
Trade
That threat of Trump tariffs against France could be just the start of a U.S.-Europe trade war. European Union leaders worry that they could be next in the firing line as Trump continues to battle what he sees as unfair barriers to trade. He has threatened retaliation against the EU as part of a dispute over airline maker subsidies and hinted at increasing tariffs on auto imports.
An extra session on the global economy was added at the request of American officials, who say Trump wants other G-7 leaders to help write new rules for international commerce designed in part to tackle unfair practices used by China.
However, this puts him on a collision course with leaders such as Macron, when Trump pushes against what he sees as unfair European barriers.
“In particular, they are going to be talking about trade and the importance of removing European barriers through trade in the agriculture and other sectors,” said an official.
Russia
Twice this week, Trump voiced his opinion that Russia should be readmitted to what was once the G-8.
“I think it would be a good thing if Russia were there so we can speak directly” to them, he said at the White House on Wednesday.
Russia was excluded following the annexation of Crimea in 2014, and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s position has become even more isolated since then.
Trump said Russian membership would come up over the weekend, but he is unlikely to find much support from other members of the G-7. Not only is the status of Crimea a stumbling block, but Britain has particular reservations.
“Given what happened in Salisbury in Wiltshire [and] the use of chemical weapons on British soil, given the continuing instability, civil war, the war in Ukraine, given Russia’s provocations, not just in Ukraine but many other places, I must say I am very much with Chancellor Merkel in thinking that the case has yet to be made out for Russia to return to the G-7,” said Prime Minister Boris Johnson after meeting Merkel in Berlin last week.
Environment
Macron has made clear that he sees climate change as an existential threat to the world and has pushed the issue even higher up the agenda at a time when fires are raging across the Amazon rainforest.
Trump has made clear that he does not see global warming in the same way, repeatedly claiming it is a Chinese hoax.
The differences were on clear display at the 2017 G-7 summit when the final communique excluded the U.S. from any climate commitment. Last year, Trump did not even attend the climate meeting.
