California Democrats fret a tsunami of voter discontent and lackluster turnout could sink Gov. Gavin Newsom even as Republicans worry he could survive a Sept. 14 recall in a photo finish because of decent approval ratings and an uninspiring field of GOP opponents.
More than a coronavirus resurgence and frustrating reimplementation of mask mandates in some corners of California, Newsom is under political pressure from rampant homelessness and rising crime — issues polling “off the charts” with voters across the state. The $262 billion state budget Newsom promoted as proof California is “roaring back” from the pandemic did little to assuage dissatisfied swing voters, and Democrats now worry Republican enthusiasm and liberal disinterest could combine for a recall defeat.
“The governor’s team is in a quandary,” Andrew Acosta, a Democratic strategist in Sacramento, said Monday. “They can’t tell everyone that they are in trouble, but if Democrats don’t take it seriously, it could be close. I still think the governor is in the driver’s seat, but it could be an interesting 50 days.”
A Republican strategist in California countered that the GOP is missing the sort of compelling candidate needed to recall a sitting Democratic governor in an overwhelmingly blue state. President Joe Biden defeated former President Donald Trump there last November by more than 29 percentage points. In a mid-July survey from Emerson, voters gave Newsom a 49% job approval rating.
“Our candidates for governor are all way too weak to be credible alternatives to Newsom. He is going to survive the recall,” this Republican operative said, requesting anonymity to speak candidly. “Then, we will spend the next year listening to activists complain that we didn’t win because we weren’t ‘more like Trump.’ It’s going to be painful.”
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But some Republicans are optimistic, saying the naysayers are looking at the developing, breakneck campaign all wrong.
Anne Dunsmore, the Republican operative behind Rescue California, the group that gathered signatures to put the recall on the ballot, said Newsom is in deep trouble through a combination of broad dissatisfaction with his leadership on several key issues plus initial voter turnout models revealing sky-high GOP enthusiasm and Democratic disinterest. Under these conditions, she said, Republicans do not need a candidate with star power to overcome the Democratic Party’s strong, partisan advantage with registered voters.
“It’s literally like watching a perfect storm, and part of me wonders if it’s ours to lose at this point,” Dunsmore said. Her theory is born out in a fresh poll released from the Los Angeles Times and the University of California Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies released Tuesday morning.
In that survey, just 36% of registered voters supported the recall, versus 51% who said they would not. However, support for Newsom’s removal jumps to 47% among Californians classified as “most likely to vote,” with 50% saying they prefer to keep the governor in power. Three percent were undecided.
Mark Baldassare, president and CEO of the Public Policy Institute of California, agreed that turnout is a major problem for Newsom and said predicting the outcome of the Sept. 14 based on the state’s Democratic lean is impossible. “People who want to remove Newsom are more closely following what’s going on with the recall than the people who want to keep him,” he said, prior to the release of the latest polling.
The recall ballot features two questions. If 50% of the voters answer “yes” to recalling Newsom, the candidate with the most votes among those running to replace him would become the next governor. In 2003, the last time a governor was recalled, Democrat Gray Davis was ousted when the recall question was approved with 55.4%, with Republican Arnold Schwarzenegger, who garnered 49%, elected to replace him. The Hollywood action star was reelected three years later, to a full, four-year term.
The 2021 field of Republicans enjoys no such apolitical popularity or crossover appeal.
John Cox was smoked by Newsom in 2018; Larry Elder is a talk radio host; Kevin Faulconer is the former San Diego mayor; Doug Ose is a former congressman; Kevin Kiley is a state assemblyman. Caitlyn Jenner, a biological male who identifies as a woman, is a reality television star and well known. As Bruce Jenner, she was a beloved Olympic decathlon gold medalist. But Jenner’s candidacy has been spotty, and she has failed to manufacture anything resembling Schwarzenegger’s political magic.
If for no other reason, many Republican insiders are not sanguine about overcoming California’s voter registration disadvantage and ousting Newsom. Political analysts say the contest is the governor’s to lose despite severe political headwinds. Forty-six percent of registered voters are Democrats, with another 12%-16% of registered independents (No Party Preference, in local parlance) estimated to lean Democratic. Just 24% of voters are registered as Republicans.
“If the vote took place today, Newsom would win. At the moment, the state budget is in great shape, and the economy is recovering,” said Jack Pitney, a professor of American politics at Claremont McKenna College, 35 miles east of Los Angeles. “Newsom has big advantages. He can raise far more money than anybody on the replacement ballot. The candidates on that ballot do not seem to have great statewide appeal.”
Garry South, Davis’s chief political adviser in 2003, said Newsom was in a position to keep his job because amid all of the crises on his plate, his job approval ratings are simply not that bad. Plus, California is far more Democratic than it was 18 years ago, the last time a governor had his tenure cut short. Davis, then in his second term, was hampered by job approval ratings in the low 20s.
“It’s a question of math,” South said.
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Recall ballots are due to be mailed out to all registered voters beginning in mid-August, whether requested or not, making it easier for Californians who support Newsom’s removal to participate in the election. Doing that was a decision made by the governor and a legislature controlled by a Democratic supermajority.
