Mickey Kaus takes on Marc Ambinder, who wrote yesterday on “why Obama won August” (more victories like that please), and Andrew Sullivan, who claims to agree with David Brooks even though Sullivan has, per Kaus, taken “pretty much the exact opposite” position as Brooks on the core point. In another item, Kaus also makes this key point about Obama’s speech tonight:
Obama doesn’t need to get “Republicans on board.” He doesn’t need to get Blue Dog Democrats on board. He needs to get voters on board. They aren’t on board now –39-37 against, according to Gallup. (When Congress passed Medicare in 1965, by way of contrast, Gallup found a 63-28 majority in favor.) … If the Dems’ health care bill were actually popular, all the vote-bargaining problems they now face would be easily solved. If the bill remains relatively unpopular, with those opposed much more likely to base their vote on the issue, it could easily fail to pass even if versions of it get past the House and Senate and into a conference committee. … Remember “comprehensive immigration reform”? In 2007, it seemed as if every month or two the New York Times would announce a breakthrough “deal” among press-anointed power brokers–a deal that was said to virtually guarantee passage. But, faced with constituent disapproval, skittish Senators didn’t want to vote for it, no matter what they said in public. And somehow it bogged down short of passage. Funny how that happens.
