House Republicans took what looked like their first baby steps away from former President Donald Trump in a conference vote this week, but party operatives say he remains a force to be reckoned with.
Rep. Liz Cheney, a Wyoming lawmaker who is also the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, beat back an attempt to depose her as chairwoman of the House Republican Conference over her vote to impeach Trump. The final vote wasn’t particularly close: 145 Republicans voted to retain Cheney, 61 backed her ouster, and one voted present.
So-called “Never Trump” conservatives expressed cautious optimism afterward that this suggests the former president is on shakier ground in his upcoming Senate trial than many expect. Only 10 Republicans in the House voted to impeach, and just five GOP senators voted to proceed with the trial after a point of order was raised challenging the constitutionality of convicting a president after his term has expired.
The House has remained a redoubt of support from Trump. Not a single Republican in the chamber voted for his first impeachment. Over 130 backed challenges to Electoral College slates from states won by President Biden even after the Capitol riot. While Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has kept his distance from Trump since Jan. 6, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy trekked to Florida to visit the former president and talk up his involvement in the midterm elections next year.
“Leader McCarthy let his caucus decide,” said Republican strategist Bradley Blakeman. “He knew he had the votes and can never be accused of not letting members decide the issue. Now, this is in the rearview mirror, and time to drive on. This also marks another pivotal moment in the post-Trump era.”
It is nevertheless important to note that the vote to keep Cheney in place was conducted by secret ballot. Public affirmations of Trump came in full view of Republican primary voters. Cheney’s fellow leadership team members also played a key role in keeping the conference behind her after Trump allies sought to have her purged for her impeachment vote.
“Most members I have talked to were ambivalent about Cheney,” said Republican strategist John Feehery. “They didn’t like that she got way in front of them on impeachment and that she initially framed her comments as being on behalf of the conference. Members hate it when words from somebody in their leadership are used against them.”
Most polling shows Trump remains popular with rank-and-file GOP voters and has much higher approval ratings than the party’s top congressional leaders. Cheney still may face a primary challenge back in Wyoming, though the midterm elections are a long way off.
But a survey by Echelon Insights, a GOP polling firm, found 48% of Republicans said they support the party over Trump, up 18 points since October, to 38% who said the opposite. The same poll found a higher percentage of Republicans with a favorable view of former Vice President Mike Pence (76%) than Trump (68%).
Pence rebuffed Trump’s requests to back the Electoral College challenges as the presiding officer in the Senate. He attended Biden’s inaugural rather than Trump’s send-off at Joint Base Andrews last month.
At the same time congressional Republicans were grappling with Cheney’s leadership role, they faced the choice of how to deal with controversial comments by freshman Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. The Georgia Republican faced ejection from her committee assignments over her past QAnon advocacy and promotion of other conspiracy theories. Republicans were divided over the appropriate response to Greene but mostly in agreement that her punishment should not be meted out by the Democratic majority. The House voted Thursday to boot her from her committees, mostly along party lines.
“My sense is that inside the conference meeting, McCarthy and [House Minority Whip Steve] Scalise did a good job of talking about how unity right now is more important than ever,” Feehery said. “It also helped to have the Democrats go after MTG because that meant that both the establishment and Trump wings of the party could claim victory.”
“Obviously, from outside the room, the MSM is making a much bigger deal about this than is really necessary because they hate Republicans and this serves as a good distraction away from all the horrible things that the Biden administration is doing,” Feehery added, referring to legacy media outlets.
Despite the party’s problems, Republicans would need a net gain of just one Senate seat and seven House seats to recapture control of Congress.
