Is BOB DOLE REALLY THAT SERIOUS about a big tax cut? Maybe not. Mike Murphy, the media consultant who left the campaign last week, proposed that Dole ride into Chicago during the Democratic convention aboard a train dubbed the Tax Cut Express. Dole could then have given a speech contrasting his 15 percent tax cut for individuals with Clinton’s meager tax reductions. Dole said no to the stunt. A few days later, Sen. Spencer Abraham of Michigan suggested he introduce the Dole tax cut as a bill in Congress this fall. Republicans would talk up the legislation. Hearings would be held. The tax cut might even pass. But Scott Reed, Dole’s campaign manager, didn’t like the idea.
Cutting taxes is supposed to be the centerpiece of the Dole campaign, the one issue that animates, energizes, and defines the Dole candidacy. John Buckley, the Dole press secretary, says it’s “the message not only for Dole but for the Republican campaign this fall.” As nice as that sounds, it’s not quite what’s happening. Rather than the only issue, the tax cut is merely the top issue among four or five.
This distinction is important. With other issues on his plate, Dole is often distracted from the tax issue. Following the Republican convention in August, he spent several days denouncing President Clinton for allowing teenage drug use to soar and a few more days on foreign policy. When Dole did show up outside Chicago (by plane and car) the day before the Democratic convention, he quickly veered from selling his tax cut. “Spending and taxes are not the only places where we need strong presidential leadership,” he said. Post-Labor Day, when Dole got back to concentrating on the tax issue, other distractions arose. He was largely blotted out of the news by the dustup with Saddam Hussein and Hurricane Fran.
Dole is hedging his bet on taxes, and Democrats have sensed his ambivalence. Former New York governor Mario Cuomo says Dole should “not say anything else — give the tax cut everything . . . make that the whole game.” Cuomo is puzzled by Dole’s use of other, competing subjects. Should Dole continue to do that, he’s not likely to gain much from the tax issue.
It’s not that people don’t want a tax cut, or that they don’t believe it’s possible to cut taxes and balance the budget at the same time. “The whole problem of selling a tax cut is the public’s not believing the seller is serious about it,” insists conservative strategist Jeffrey Bell. Dole has yet to convince the public of his seriousness. Far from it: A new CBS poll found only 23 percent of Americans think Dole is truly committed to slashing taxes. And most of those folks are probably Republicans well disposed toward Dole.
There’s a way for Dole to convey the seriousness of his intentions on taxes. It’s by waging a relentless, near-maniacal, one-note campaign on cutting taxes — to the exclusion of everything else. Dole is wary of this tactic, even though his stump speeches do emphasize the 15 percent cut. In St. Louis on Labor Day, he declared that he and Jack Kemp “have one big plan, just like this big arch. . . . Give American families back more of their hard-earned money.” And his main TV ad airing the first two weeks of September talks about “a tax cut of $ 1,600 for the typical family.” It includes a clip from Dole’s acceptance speech at the Republican convention in which he says people shouldn’t apologize for wanting a tax cut. “It’s your money,” he says.
That’s effective stuff, but the Dole campaign plans to switch ads in mid- September and play up the drug issue, particularly rising drug use among teenagers. Dole’s pollsters and ousted media consultant Don Sipple prefer the anti-narcotics approach, if only because it generates strong sentiment. But while fighting drugs may be a popular issue, it’s not a cutting issue. It doesn’t attract new supporters. Dole tacticians think that if they can link the increase in drug use directly to Clinton, voters might switch. They envision a TV ad centered on a 1992 interview with Clinton on MTV in which he jokingly says he wished he had inhaled pot. My guess is voters will dismiss that Clinton comment as ancient history.
Dole’s pollsters are looking for another issue because they don’t like what they’re hearing from focus groups and voter surveys: that Americans don’t think the Dole tax cut can be paid for with spending cuts. Sipple contended there is “more power” in issues dealing with moral decline in America. (He left the campaign along with Murphy on September 5, but it wasn’t because he wanted to downplay cutting taxes.) On a campaign trip, Sen. John McCain of Arizona told reporters he “understands” why voters are dubious of the tax cut, and that Dole has to spell out exactly how he’ll cut spending to offset lost revenue from cutting taxes. Wisely, Dole doesn’t intend to do that, since it would be another distraction from the tax cut itself.
As luck would have it, there’s a vehicle for Dole to convey his seriousness about cutting taxes: paid media, funded at saturation level. Several campaign advisers — notably co-chairman Vin Weber and policy aide Kevin Stach — want to air simple, uncluttered ads of Dole talking directly into the camera about the need to cut taxes. Ronald Reagan did this to great effect in 1980.
It’s a gamble. But what has Dole got to lose?
by Fred Barnes
