In light of the Tea Party’s electoral victories throughout the country these past few months one must wonder what is in store for the Tea Party movement after the 2010 elections. Historically, American political movements (i.e. Prohibition, Women’s Suffrage, etc.) tend to serve their purpose then gradually fade away. After the 2010 elections, will the Tea Party continue to be a force in American politics or will it dissipate like other previous movements?
The Tea Party has no doubt changed the American political landscape. Ever since Rick Santelli suggested on CNBC in February 2009 that the American public organize a modern tea party in protest against President Obama and the congressional Democrats for subsidizing failed mortgages and passing the failed $787 billion “Stimulus” bill, the Tea Party has grown and become more influential over time.
While having no formal overarching leadership, the Tea Party is made up of various local and national Tea Party groups. According to a New York Times national poll released in April 2010, 18% of Americans identify themselves as a member of the Tea Party and are deeply dissatisfied with Washington in regards to economic issues primarily. Tea Party critics suggest they are a reactionary element of the times serving as a front group for the Republican Party. Supporters state they are not reactionary but are instead reviving the Founders’ concept of a limited, smaller federal government and want their elected leaders, in both political parties, to reign in out-of-control spending.
Their victories have been numerous and substantial throughout the last year and a half. In 2009, their first major endeavor was hosting Tea Party rallies around the country on April 15th – the day income tax returns are due. They were also responsible for many of the August town hall meetings where numerous Tea Party members confronted elected officials of both political parties in their home congressional districts demanding they vote against Obamacare, future bailouts, and reckless spending. The next month on September 12th they organized one of the largest political gatherings ever in the nation’s capital protesting the runaway spending in Washington.
In 2010, they continued to grow and became more organized. Many of the individual Tea Party groups organized national conventions, wrote policy platforms, including the Contracts from America – a spinoff of the 1994 Republican Contracts with America, and helped nominate fiscally conservative candidates primarily in the Republican Party. Their efforts helped dislodge entrenched, party “establishment” candidates who were perceived as RINOs (Republican in Name Only), such as incumbent US Senators Bob Bennett (UT), Mike Castle (DE), and Lisa Murkowski (AK).
While the Tea Party’s successes are many, there are certain tangibles that will determine the future of the movement after the 2010 elections. Realistically, a political movement begins to truly exert influence if it can sway elections and legislative outcomes. If the Tea Party backed candidates win in November their status and influence will no doubt increase and future Republican, and even Democrat, candidates will vie for Tea Party endorsement and support.
The biggest “what if” question is what happens if their chosen candidates do not win. Republicans will probably understand if Christine O’Donnell (DE) loses, as her recent poll numbers indicate. They will probably even forgive the Tea Party if Sharon Angle loses to Harry Reid in Nevada due to his disciplined campaign effort, national stature, and access to national Democrat donors. But if Joe Miller (AK), Rand Paul (KY) and other supposed-to-win Tea Party backed candidates, who knocked out the “establishment” Republican in their respective primaries, lose, expect a more cautious embrace of the Tea Party in the future.
Successful political movements have also suffered from other maladies the more successful they became such as attrition, leadership struggles, and group rivalries. The Tea Party also prides itself on being spontaneously brought together by the issues of the day – but will this be enough to continue momentum without a national figurehead or formal leadership structure?
Presently, the disparate Tea Party groups – Tea Party Patriots, Tea Party Nation, Tea Party Express, and others, have separate leaders who only work loosely together, many times cooperatively but other times not. There is no formal figurehead for the movement as a whole and many disagree that Sarah Palin is or should be the anointed one. Internal squabbling could also play a factor as members begin to disagree on direction after their perceived victories this election cycle – call it the “what now?” factor.
For the foreseeable future, the Tea Party kettle will keep on brewing after the 2010 elections as President Obama and congressional Democrats are unlikely to deviate from their big spending habits. How long will be determined by the continued cooperation between the disparate groups, future legislation, and whether or not the Republican leadership follows through on their promises to cut spending. The Republicans will hopefully learn from the unfortunate mistakes of the 1994 Republican Revolution.
As the elections play out, the Tea Party movement faces its greatest challenge – success. If they can maneuver past these historical pitfalls of previous political movements they will continue to be a force in American politics long after 2010 at this critical juncture in American history.
Christopher N. Malagisi is a National Review Institute Washington Fellow, President of the Young Conservatives Coalition, Director of Political & New Media Training at The Leadership Institute, and a political science Adjunct Professor at American University teaching conservative movement history.
