COLUMBIA, South Carolina — South Carolina’s Democratic presidential primary could again reshape dynamics in the Democratic presidential field.
There are 54 nominating delegates up for grabs in Saturday’s last early state contest before Super Tuesday on March 3. A total of 1,991 delegates are needed to win the Democratic nomination at the party’s national convention this summer in Milwaukee.
Polls close at 7 p.m. EST on Saturday, and results could trickle in quickly after that. Here are five things to watch in the results.
Joe Biden comeback?
After disappointing fourth- and fifth-place finishes in the Iowa and New Hampshire contests at the beginning of the month, the former vice president’s presidential hopes are riding on his performance in South Carolina. Biden and his campaign have called the state the “firewall” due to his popularity with black voters in the state, who made up about 60% of the primary electorate in the 2016 primary.
The question for Biden, however, is not only whether he wins the state, but by how much. A commanding victory would do more to boost his campaign in the three days before Super Tuesday.
Bernie Sanders performance
The socialist Vermont senator leads in delegates to the Democratic presidential nomination — he has 45, while former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg has 26, and Biden has 15 — and increased his campaign efforts in South Carolina in the last week in hopes of preventing Biden from taking the overall lead.
The RealClearPolitics average of South Carolina polls finds Biden with 36.8% support in the state, while Sanders has 24.3%, businessman Tom Steyer has 12.8%, and Buttigieg has 11.3%.
Tom Steyer’s last stand?
Steyer, a billionaire hedge fund king-turned-activist philanthropist, has spent more on ads in the state than any of his primary competitors and spent more time campaigning there than anyone else. He has eaten into some of Biden’s support and could prevent the former vice president from getting the momentum boost he needs before Super Tuesday.
While he is third in the polls, he is below the 15% threshold to earn statewide nominating delegates to the Democratic National Convention. Because of his dip in the last week, reporters have repeatedly asked him whether his campaign will be viable if he does not perform well in South Carolina. Steyer dodges the questions, saying only that he needs to prove that he can pull together the diverse coalition he is trying to create.
Demographic breakdown
Exit polls from the 2016 South Carolina Democratic primary revealed the highest proportion of black voters ever, about 60%. Minority voters are key to Democratic hopes of winning the White House in 2016, and a dip in that proportion could spell trouble for Democrats. An increase in black voters could also be a boost to Biden, who is most popular among black voters in the state.
Spin from others before Super Tuesday else
All candidates stress their commitment to making “social justice” changes to benefit black and Latino voters, but many struggle to break through Biden’s and Sanders’s popularity with those voters. The question is, how do they prove viability going forward if they do not show strength in a diverse state?
Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar may try to ignore a poor performance in the state. She opted to spend much of the week ahead of the South Carolina primary campaigning in Super Tuesday states. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren is poised to downplay a lackluster placing, too. Her campaign sent a press release Saturday morning touting diverse endorsements from leaders in the state.
