ALTHOUGH DEMOCRATS HAVE a clear advantage nationwide, Virginia Representative Tom Davis thinks the GOP still has a shot at some wins in 2008. “Don’t write us off. I think the political landscape will be vastly different next November than it is right now,” he said at a breakfast with reporters on Thursday.
Despite this optimism, Davis will not be running for the seat of retiring Senator John Warner in 2008. Davis, a moderate Republican who has been in Congress since 1994, is also considering retiring from the House–although he continues to raise money and campaign.
Davis told reporters that he’s “had an exhausting two years on the campaign trail.” His 2006 race was the closest he’s faced, and his wife, Republican state senator Jeannemarie Devolites Davis, is facing a tough challenge in this November’s state legislature elections, where Democrats need to pick up only four seats to gain a majority in the state senate.
Once a Republican stronghold, Virginia has become a battleground state. Democrats won the governorship in 2001 and 2005, unseated an incumbent Republican U.S. senator in 2006, and consistently poll well, especially in blue Northern Virginia. “Part of it is the city moving out to the suburbs,” Davis said, but he mostly credits the changing voter behavior to the unpopularity of Bush and the Iraq war.
Republicans have held Warner’s seat since 1972, but given these political conditions, Davis thinks a bruising Senate campaign isn’t worth the effort. He would first face a tough primary fight against the conservative former governor Jim Gilmore, who is planning to run for the seat. (Being a moderate would be a handicap for Davis in the party’s statewide nominating convention.) And even if he did get the nomination, “if you’re all tied up in the convention, you can’t do the kind of grassroots you ordinarily would do running a campaign in the traditional sense against the Democrat.” He would expend a lot of time and energy just winning over Republicans before he would be able to reach out to the state’s Democrats and Independents. The Republican nominee will then likely face popular former Democratic governor Mark Warner. “He’s formidable,” said Davis yesterday. “He’s a very affable guy, and he’s got a lot of money, and he’s got organization around the state.”
Davis sees Virginia as an example of the challenges Republicans are facing nationwide. “If we want to be a national party, we’re going to have to change the way we do things,” Davis insisted. He says the party would be wise to choose candidates that are separated from Bush, and focus on issues like taxes, trade, and education. “You have to earn your way back,” he added. “And so far, we haven’t done enough to earn our way back.”
There was a time when a seven-term congressman like Davis would have been in the ideal position to move up to the Senate. But the political landscape across the country is changing, and Republicans will have to work extra hard in 2008 just to keep what they’ve got.
Samantha Sault is an editorial assistant at THE WEEKLY STANDARD.
