Karl Rove wrote in the Wall Street Journal yesterday:
History will favor Republicans in 2010. Since World War II, the out-party has gained an average of 23 seats in the U.S. House and two in the U.S. Senate in a new president’s first midterm election. Other than FDR and George W. Bush, no president has gained seats in his first midterm election in both chambers. Since 1966, the incumbent party has lost an average of 63 state senate and 262 state house seats, and six governorships, in a president’s first midterm election. That 2010 is likely to see Republicans begin rebounding just before redistricting is one silver lining in an otherwise dismal year for the GOP.
Republicans may have history on their side, but the landscape for the 2010 Senate races, at least, looks pretty inhospitable for the GOP, as Chris Cillizza writes today:
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