Russian President Vladimir Putin, having raised the specter of a major military assault in an apparent bid to secure diplomatic concessions from Ukraine and NATO, might just have blinked.
“We are ready to work further together,” Putin said during a joint press conference with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. “We are ready to go down the negotiations track.”
Putin signaled that announcement in a pair of televised meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, a theatrical display of consultations that featured the top diplomat encouraging the Kremlin chief to continue talking to Western powers. Putin appeared to accept that recommendation, just days after White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan urged Americans in Ukraine to leave within 48 hours, lest they be trapped in a war zone.
“If Putin was up to something, then the American reaction and American actions changed his plans, and now he’s buying time — or at least postponing what he was probably up to,” Atlantic Council visiting fellow Petr Tuma, a career Czech diplomat, told the Washington Examiner. “At least, that’s how I read the proposal.”
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Western officials reacted with “cautious optimism,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters before the opening of a regular meeting of the defense ministers from the trans-Atlantic alliance.
“So far, we have not seen any de-escalation on the ground, not seen any signs of reduced Russian military presence on the borders of Ukraine, but we will continue to monitor and to follow closely what Russia is doing,” Stoltenberg said. “The signs coming from Moscow about willingness to continue to engage in diplomatic efforts — that gives some reason for cautious optimism.”
Lavrov, in his public report to Putin, derided the NATO response to Russia’s recent demand that the trans-Atlantic allies restrict the security links between the original members of NATO and the Central European and Eastern European states that joined after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
“So we will continue to seek a concrete response from each country,” Lavrov told Putin.
That comment sets the stage for a much more protracted diplomatic process, given the pace at which each of the 30 members of the alliance would respond. Russia unveiled its so-called draft treaty in December, followed by a response from the United States and NATO on Jan. 25. Russia has not yet sent a written reply.
“Look, we can spend, you know, the rest of the year going back and forth, exchanging letters,” U.S. Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith told reporters in a virtual press conference. “The best way to proceed would be for us to sit down at the table again. We had the four-hour NATO-Russia council here at NATO headquarters, and NATO is open to doing that again.”
Lavrov claimed that his recommendation was based on some new sign that Western officials were prepared to make concessions that they had refused to offer previously.
“As of today, however, we have seen some very specific responses to the initiatives we advanced earlier. The other side is demonstrating a willingness to enter into serious negotiations,” he told Putin. “It is clear that our initiative … has given our Western colleagues a shake.”
That self-congratulatory statement may not be correct.
“There is some indication … that Putin has blinked or is blinking and is moving toward negotiations away from the precipice, away from the invasion,” former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor told the Washington Examiner. “I’m prepared to believe still that they are [blinking] and we haven’t.”
Putin and Lavrov aired their conversation as Secretary of State Antony Blinken moved the U.S. Embassy from Kyiv to a city on the Ukraine-Poland border in anticipation of a possible attack on the capital. Taylor acknowledged that the new statements could represent a Russian attempt to induce Ukraine and Western officials to “let down their guard” ahead of a still-possible assault.
“What we have seen on the ground, actually, since last spring is that they’re moving forces around, but that doesn’t represent a real de-escalation,” Stoltenberg said. “And then they can very quickly reinforce and move all the people back, all the troops back again if needed. So the movement of forces, the movement of Russian capabilities doesn’t represent real de-escalation, but we will monitor, we will follow what they are doing.”
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Thus, the threat of a major assault could persist even if Lavrov chooses to pursue an extended dialogue with each of the member-states of NATO.
“The Russian military buildup in and around Ukraine is unprecedented, not only with a high number of combat ready troops, but all the support, all the combat enablers they need to actually conduct a full-fledged invasion of Ukraine,” Stoltenberg said. “And with all these forces, all these capabilities in place, Russia can conduct an invasion of Ukraine with very little or hardly any warning time at all.”
