For New York Times statistician Nate Cohn, the biggest story of the 2016 election for Republicans has nothing to do with Donald Trump.
The most important story right now is how the second-tier candidates — who are now polling well below Trump — are planning to win in Iowa and New Hampshire, and win the “so-called invisible primary for elite support.”
“These three contests nearly amount to separate campaigns, with Iowa and New Hampshire something like two brackets in a tournament,” he wrote Tuesday, “and with the invisible primary bestowing the resources and credibility that help candidates reach the finals.”
Surprisingly, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who many predicted would be the GOP’s eventual nominee, has lost ground in all three contests. The same goes for Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker.
Taken together, Walker’s and Bush’s challenges in Iowa, New Hampshire and the “invisible primary” represent what could be the biggest 2016 story so far, Cohn wrote.
When it comes to Iowa, Walker’s possible problems involve his fellow primary competitors, including former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, and their post-GOP primary debate surge in the polls.
Though Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, poses a major challenge to Walker in Iowa, it’s Carson’s and Fiorina’s recent gains in the Hawkeye State that pose a problem.
It should be noted, he added, that Carson and Fiorina “don’t seem to have a very good chance of sustaining their position for the next five months. Voters haven’t yet heard detailed cases against them — for instance, Mrs. Fiorina’s checkered record at Hewlett-Packard.”
Nevertheless, their gains could be enough to throw Walker off balance, resulting in him losing his chance to win the party’s nomination. This development comes on top of the fact that the Wisconsin governor has already struggled to appeal to both the fringe of the base and the broader voting public.
Meanwhile, in New Hampshire, Bush is looking at a threat from former Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
“Since he announced his candidacy a month ago, Mr. Kasich has spent $4 million on advertisements in New Hampshire and performed well in the first debate. He has made steady gains as a result, and may already be tied or ahead of Mr. Bush in the state,” Cohn wrote.
Unlike Walker’s challenge from Carson and Fiorina, Kasich’s play to win the Granite State may be more durable and threatening to Bush’s chances.
“Mr. Kasich … has received a series of high-profile endorsements from New Hampshire political figures, like the former senator John E. Sununu and the top adviser and former attorney general Tom Rath,” Cohn said. “His policy views and his personality are a fit for a state with relatively moderate Republicans and an open primary.”
“Not only could Mr. Kasich win the state, but he could also split the relatively moderate wing of the electorate enough to allow a fairly mainstream winner of Iowa, like Mr. Walker or Mr. Rubio, to carry New Hampshire as well,” he added.
Lastly, there’s the so-called “invisible primary,” which Cohn says is Sen. Marco Rubio’s, R-Fla., best bet.
The Florida senator hasn’t generated enough enthusiasm in Iowa or New Hampshire to translate into a primary win. So he may need the money and networks provided by Republican “elites” in Washington, D.C.
Rubio “has not made significant gains in either Iowa or New Hampshire, two states where it’s particularly hard for candidates without a natural base,” Cohn said. “So Mr. Rubio will need to generate enough attention, resources and credibility to build a fairly broad coalition. Elite support is crucial to that.”
And as for Trump, who currently leads the entire GOP field, the story is a bit different. Rather than doing damage to one or two candidates specifically, the way that Carson can do damage to Walker in Iowa, Trump appears to be damaging everyone equally.
Still, Cohn predicted, Trump will most likely drop out of the race entirely later on, and his candidacy will have upended no candidate in particular.
