Internal polling data, presented privately last week at the Republican National Committee’s state chair meeting and provided to Politico, shows John McCain with a solid lead over both his potential general election rivals. Powered by the same appeal to Democrats and independents that fueled his primary election success, McCain is leading Barack Obama 48 percent to 42 percent and Hillary Clinton 51 percent to 40 percent according to RNC polling done late last month… Among independents, McCain leads Obama 48 percent to 39 percent and Clinton 54 percent to 34 percent. Among Democrats, he picks up 20 percent in a race against Obama and leads Barack Obama 48 percent to 39 percent and Senator Clinton 54 percent to 34 percent… “You do have to look at the generic presidential ballot, which is continuing to show a Democrat lead,” said Goeas. “But the fact that McCain is running ahead of both Obama and Clinton, and in terms of net advantage, is running 16-17 poitns ahead of that deficit is a good thing.”
McCain has consistently been running well ahead of the generic ballot. This must be because of some combination of two factors: neither Clinton nor Obama sounds as good as the ‘generic Democrat;’ and more importantly, McCain sounds better than the average Republican. In the months before the election, Republican candidates must hope that the generic GOP number rises to meet McCain’s performance. That will be indicative of the American public no longer associating Republicans with the Bush administration, but instead with candidate McCain. McCain’s lead over Obama and Clinton is significant as well. It suggest that Democrats are wrong to regard the big interest in their primary as an indicator that they’re headed for a win in November. Rather, it seems that the exciting nominating contest is happening apart from the McCain-whoever horse race.
