American and Taliban officials signed a historic agreement Saturday that sets the table for a reduction of U.S. forces in Afghanistan and unprecedented negotiations between the militant group and the central government.
“We’re just at the beginning,” Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said prior to the signing of the deal in Doha, Qatar. “Furthering the cause of peace would require serious work and sacrifice by all sides.”
The ceremony took place following the successful conclusion of a seven-day “reduction in violence” deal. The essence of the agreement involves a renunciation of terrorism by the Taliban, which sheltered Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda in the lead-up to the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, and the start of peace talks in exchange for a gradual American withdrawal from the country.
“It doesn’t happen immediately,” a senior administration official said of the plan to cut the American troop presence down to 8,600. “It takes a while to get out. It’s not going to happen overnight. But that is the commander on the ground’s recommendation, that is the president’s intention, and that’s in the agreement.”
That reduction is scheduled to take place over the next 135 days, according to the text of the agreement. The remaining U.S. and NATO forces are scheduled to leave the country “within 14 months … subject to the Taliban’s fulfillment of its commitments under the U.S.- Taliban agreement,” said a separate joint declaration.
The deal was signed by Zalmay Khalilzad, the State Department’s lead negotiator for war in Afghanistan. At the same time, Defense Secretary Mark Esper met with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani in Kabul in a show of solidarity with the central government.
“As intra-Afghan negotiations progress, the United States will watch the Taliban’s actions closely to judge whether their efforts towards peace are in good faith,” Esper said in Kabul. “Should the Taliban fail to honor their commitments, they will forfeit their chance to sit with fellow Afghans and deliberate on the future of their country. Moreover, the United States would not hesitate to nullify the agreement.”
The signing ceremony does not immediately initiate intra-Afghan talks, but U.S. officials expect that the negotiations will begin by mid-March. The opening round will be hosted in Oslo, by the Norwegian government. The appointment of the delegations is a delicate issue because Ghani’s declared victory in the recent Afghan presidential elections has been contested by his chief rival, Abdullah Abdullah — and Pompeo pointedly declined to endorse the stated results of the campaign earlier this week.
“So, it’s important for the Taliban to sit with the government, but the government doesn’t represent all of the Afghan political system,” a second senior administration official told reporters.
The negotiations are expected to involve not only associates of Ghani and Abdullah, but also women’s rights groups that seek to avoid the renewal of the repression that the Taliban imposed before the U.S. invasion.
“They’ll have a seat at the table during the negotiations,” the first senior administration official said. “I can’t prejudge the outcome of this agreement, but a very high priority for us will be absolutely the protection of women’s rights, and we aren’t without influence in the process going forward.”
The question of whether the U.S. withdraws military forces will be tied to whether the Taliban honors its counterterrorism pledges — not the specific details of any political talks. “There’s a reason why. Look at the past week in Kabul,” the second administration official said. “So, we are going to push for an outcome as quickly as possible.”
If that raises the possibility that the Taliban could try to manipulate the process until after the U.S. military withdrawal, it also reflects the Trump administration’s understanding that the Afghan political factions could slow the negotiations — and that officials in Kabul might feel an incentive to keep U.S. forces in the country by drawing out the talks.
“It’s not going to be easy,” the second administration official said. “But there’s also a strong desire among Afghans to get out of this conflict, which is the reason we’re doing this in the first place, because everybody recognized that it’s a military stalemate and a political solution is the only way forward.”
