Some China-Taiwan specialists and other foreign policy experts have been caught up lately in a declinist narrative that has China overtaking the United States not only economically but also in terms of military supremacy in the Asia-Pacific. They see that power shift as putting democratic Taiwan at a terminal military disadvantage vis-à-vis China.

Some, such as Robert Kaplan, say Washington’s failure to provide Taiwan with new F-16 aircraft or other defense articles necessary to meet the U.S. commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act shows we accept the reality of China’s imminent dominance.