Divided Government Watch: For Sound Fiscal Policy, It’s McCain

The Washington Post looks at the fiscal challenges facing the next President, and suggests that John McCain’s fiscal bona fides are more credible than those of Barack Obama:

Obama has not made balanced budgets a priority. Instead, he promises numerous tax cuts likely to make the situation worse, including subsidies for education, child care, homeownership, “savers” and people who work. Obama also vows to extend the Bush tax cuts for families who earn less than $250,000 a year. According to an analysis by the Tax Policy Center, a joint project of Brookings and the Urban Institute, his tax plans would deprive the Treasury of nearly $900 billion in his first term, and increase the national debt by $3.3 trillion by 2018.

The Tax Policy Center does not include Obama’s recent suggestion of a reduction in corporate tax rates. Even if that were factored in however, it would be unlikely to increase the projected Obama deficit past the one forecast for McCain: $4.3 trillion. But the Post also suggests that McCain’s record gives hope that he can reduce spending and tackle entitlements — a point made effectively by Bill Clinton’s first Budget Director:

Despite his promises of tax cuts, fiscal analysts note that McCain has a reputation as a budget-cutter. He voted against the Bush tax cuts he now proposes to extend and refuses to request funding for local programs known as earmarks. He has been talking about the need to reform Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid since the race began more than a year ago. “I suspect that McCain will be more constrained and will have a veto power over the Democratic Congress,” said Alice M. Rivlin, who served as the first director of the Congressional Budget Office, as well as one of Clinton’s budget directors. “If it’s Obama, the Democratic Congress is going to be pushing for spending and it’s awfully hard to rein in your own folks. No Democrat is going to want to go to war with Congress.”

I’ve pointed out before that the entrenched Democratic majority in Congress is going to make Obama’s job harder. Already Democrats like Rivlin are warning that it may be fiscally foolish to give Democrats complete control of the nation’s finances. The Post emphasizes the point by subsequently reporting that ‘budget experts’ say it’s easier to control the deficit when the parties have divided control. It’s also a challenge for the Democrats that Barack Obama has no record to speak of on deficits; he’s only been in the Senate a few years, so his voting record is quite thin. McCain on the other hand, has a long track record of fighting wasteful spending, as well as a history of supporting or opposing tax reductions based on the current circumstances. All this ought to give fiscal conservatives and deficit hawks a strong reason to support McCain, rather than Obama.

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