Hidden in a new national poll that found President Trump with a relatively solid 45% job approval rating were likability numbers that suggest he faces a difficult path to reelection in 2020.
The YouGov survey for The Economist, conducted earlier this month, revealed that more than twice as many adults in the United States — 39% — “dislike” Trump “a lot” versus 18% who “like” the president “a lot.”
Combining those figures with the shares of voters who both like and dislike Trump “somewhat,” his overall likability numbers are underwater, at 32% who like the president versus 47% who dislike him. The poll, conducted via internet-based interviews, had an error margin of 3 percentage points.
Trump was disliked even more among a subsample of registered voters who identify as independents, a key voting bloc. Three times as many voters in this group — 36% — disliked Trump a lot as liked him a lot, 12%. When those who disliked the president somewhat were included, the spread was 46% dislike versus 26% like.
If the eventual Democratic nominee can do a better job in 2020 of coalescing voters who do not like Trump than did Hillary Clinton in 2016, the president’s more favorable job approval rating might not be enough to save him. In that contest, Clinton’s likability numbers were nearly as bad as Trump’s, a factor partially responsible for his surprise victory.
“President Trump has a solid, relatively immovable bloc of support, but it’s less than 50% of the vote,” said John Couvillon, a Republican pollster in Louisiana. “His challenge is, he has to be able to add to his base of support if he wants to win — unless he wants to gamble.”
Trump supporters who doubt this traditional metric applies to the president should reconsider, Couvillon said, pointing to Republicans’ loss of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections.
But some veteran Republican number-crunchers are not convinced that likability matters as much as it used to where Trump is concerned. They contend that the president’s unorthodox approach to politics and unique personality has rendered this usually predictive indicator less predictive.
In 2016, Trump won despite a 38% favorable/60% unfavorable rating from voters in who participated in national exit polling on Election Day. True, Clinton’s numbers were nearly as bad — 43% favorable/55% unfavorable. But some Republicans believe that it is possible for Trump to defeat a Democrat in 2020 who is viewed positively even if his personal ratings remain upside down.
“What you’re identifying here is a key strategic unknown,” said David Winston, a veteran GOP pollster in Washington who advises congressional Republicans. He said Trump might have managed to create a different dynamic, as evidenced by the fact that his overall job approval rating is consistently higher than his likability or personal favorable ratings.
Indeed, Winston emphasized, the president’s job approval on economic matters is even better than his job numbers generally. In the YouGov poll, Trump’s approval on the economy was 48%, 3 points higher than his overall approval.
“How does he make sure the story of the campaign is about the economy, which lets him tap into that?” Winston asked, referring to how Trump might overcome a political hangover caused by his consistent personal negatives.
