The Republican Party’s hold on the House majority suffered a massive blow on Wednesday when House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., announced plans to retire from Congress upon the conclusion of his current term.
While Ryan will remain House speaker until he leaves, sources said the announcement is damaging for party morale and could encourage more Republicans to head for the exits, especially since he revealed his decision just seven months before a midterm that was already poised to sweep Democrats into power. Worse, Ryan is a prolific fundraiser, and his announcement this close to November jeopardizes House Republicans’ access to the resources they need to withstand gale-force political headwinds generated by dissatisfaction with President Trump.
“The timing and execution of his decision is a borderline disaster for the conference and the party,” a senior Republican strategist told the Washington Examiner, requesting anonymity in order to speak candidly.
“It sends a terrible message at a terrible time. We are at a critical time of fundraising for members, candidates, the [National Republican Congressional Committee] and outside organizations. For our most prolific fundraiser to announce his decision now makes an already difficult job more difficult. It creates a tremendous void,” this strategist added.
Ryan’s decision to leave Congress after 20 years wasn’t shocking. There has been speculation he might make an announcement immediate after the passage of the $1.3 trillion tax reform package in December. The speaker had worked toward that accomplishment for most of his career.
But the timing was a surprise, and Republican insiders fear it could have the additional impact of sparking a series of divisive elections for senior conference leadership positions and committee slots as members seek to move in the wake of Ryan’s exit.
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The intraparty combat could play out over the next seven months, adding an unnecessary political burden to House Republicans as they struggle to retain control of a precarious 23-seat majority. Ryan during a news conference sought to tamp down those fears, and insisted his colleagues are in a strong position.
“I gave it some consideration,” Ryan said, of the politics of his decision. “But I really do not believe whether I stay or go in 2018 is going to affect a person’s individual race for Congress … If we do our jobs, which we are, we are going to be fine as a majority.”
The speaker’s Republican colleagues were less sanguine.
Rep. Dennis Ross, R-Fla., announced he was retiring soon after Ryan did — Ross’ exit was not initially expected by House GOP leaders — and Rep. Charlie Dent, R-Pa., another 2018 retiree, said the repeated hits and ongoing political challenges are taking a definite toll on House Republicans’ psyche.
“I think there’s a lot of wariness. A lot of exhaustion, frankly,” Dent said. “This is going to be a challenging year. The litmus test for being Republican these days isn’t about any given set of ideals or principles. It’s about loyalty to the man, and I think that’s challenging.”
[Related: Meghan McCain skewers those cheering Paul Ryan’s retirement: ‘You deserve Trump’]
Ryan’s fundraising, more successful than any of the Republicans to come before him as speaker, was a primary source of cash for the NRCC, the House GOP campaign arm. The speaker also was responsible for directing tens of millions of dollars in unlimited cash to Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC that has figured prominently in the House GOP’s strategy to protect the majority.
As a lame duck leader, Ryan’s fundraising is likely to dry up considerably, and GOP insiders questioned the ability of House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and House Majority Whip Steve Scalise, R-La., to completely pick up the slack, as successful as their fundraising track records have been this cycle.
Just as Ryan was making his announcement, his political team issued an invitation to an April 18 luncheon fundraiser asking for as much as $10,000 a head. But one Republican lobbyist predicted that support for this an other Washington, D.C., events, which usually rake in cash, could diminish significantly.
“The intentional or unintentional message to the conference is the House is lost,” the former GOP aide said. “The announcement at this stage of the cycle hurts fundraising, hurts morale and may influence other incumbents to rethink their plans.”
Al Weaver contributed to this report
