The Washington region’s housing market this spring is positioned to have an even stronger performance than last year — and that’s without the help of a federal tax credit to drive up sales. Early numbers are reminiscent of the boom years as the 5,432 pending home sales last month was the highest total for March since 2006, largely led by a burst of activity in Prince George’s County, according to Metropolitan Regional Information Systems Inc., a mid-Atlantic real estate tracking firm. Pending home sales in March 2006 totaled 5,737, and the record monthly total was May 2005 at more than 7,800 pending sales.
But experts caution homeowners expecting the similarities with the boom years not to go any further.
“We have to think of that bubble in the middle of the decade as the anomaly,” said Jonathan Miller, author of the report and president of consulting firm Miller Samuel Inc. “But there is some solace in that we’re seeing more activity than we have in the last five years.”
| Spring housing boomlet | ||||||
| Number of houses under contract in March highest for month since 2006. | ||||||
| New pending sales | Change from 2010 | Homes sold | Change from 2010 | Median price sold | Price change from ’10 | |
| D.C. | 738 | -6% | 555 | -4% | $379,950 | +7% |
| Alexandria | 224 | -3% | 171 | +22% | $410,000 | +23% |
| Arlington County | 257 | -21% | 194 | -18% | $467,000 | +9% |
| Fairfax County | 1,589 | -2% | 1,034 | -10% | $370,000 | +4% |
| Loudoun County | 611 | +12% | 339 | -28% | $360,000 | -4% |
| Prince William County | 759 | -1% | 484 | -19% | $225,000 | -6% |
| Montgomery County | 1,273 | +1% | 756 | -10% | $332,450 | +3% |
| Prince George’s County | 1,308 | +27% | 730 | -10% | $155,000 | -19% |
| Source: MRIS RealEstate Business Intelligence | ||||||
The number of signed contracts for the month is only slightly higher than March 2010, when activity was buoyed by the homebuyers tax credit. But it’s at least 20 percent higher than the recession years, according to the report.
“It’s a respectable level of activity,” Miller said. “We’re seeing seasonality that has long been absent in terms of ebb and flow.”
Last month’s contract activity was led by a 27 percent annual increase in Prince George’s County, while most other jurisdictions saw a slight decrease. However, sales prices in Prince George’s fell significantly, a phenomenon that is likely a result of the county’s slow recovery from the foreclosure crisis.
“Prince George’s County was one of the largest counties that suffered the most in terms of home foreclosures … so there’s a lot of price softness,” said Towson University economist Daraius Irani. “Meanwhile you see in D.C. home prices going up so much that people are being pushed out so the county tends to be the first landing spot for people.”
Overall, the region’s three consecutive months of increases in pending sales is a good indicator that the housing market is stabilizing after last year’s rocky season, experts said.
“I think next year’s going to be even better,” said Karen Trainor, a broker at Weichert Realtors in Ashburn, Va. “We’re slowly getting there, we’re seeing more calls coming in. No one wants to be too crazy, though, because you don’t want to get disappointed.”
