Iraq, Afghanistan Supplemental Likely to Reject Date Certain for Withdrawal

Several news outlets report on the House-Senate conference which must resolve differences between their respective Iraq/Afghanistan supplementals. The primary question is whether the conference report will use the Senate language, which calls for a suggested timetable for withdrawal, or the House bill’s date certain. The Washington Post suggests that the Democrats have the upper hand in their battle with the president. Roll Call ($) says that Ben Nelson (D-NE) may hold the key to deciding whether the House or Senate language is retained:

Congressional experts have pondered for weeks how Pelosi will get her already unhappy liberals to vote for the Senate’s language, which unlike the House does not include a compulsory date certain for withdrawal. Others have wondered whether Reid will be able to give any ground in conference given the narrow 51-vote margin of victory in the Senate.

The answer for Reid likely is a big, fat “no,” if Sen. Ben Nelson (D-Neb.) has anything to say about it.

And he will, because Reid put Nelson – along with all the other members of the Senate Appropriations Committee – on the conference committee. That means Nelson will be able to prevent the bill from even emerging from conference if he doesn’t like the outcome…

And just because Nelson voted for the Senate bill initially does not mean he is wedded to the Senate’s March 31, 2008, “goal” of ending U.S. combat missions in Iraq. Quite the opposite, said Nelson spokesman David DiMartino.

“Sen. Nelson will be working to get the dates removed,” said DiMartino, who added that Nelson’s vote right now is “completely in the undecided category” on whether to back a conference report that has the Senate language.

Still, DiMartino said the Senator definitely would “prefer the Senate language over the House language, but he’d prefer no language at all.”

Nelson himself laid down his marker in an Omaha World-Herald article published Monday, saying that if House leaders insist on their withdrawal timetable, “They’ll lose.”

If Senator Nelson stands his ground, it makes it likely that the date certain will be dropped. His position might well determine those of several other Senators–including his home-state colleague Chuck Hagel, who will want to avoid standing to the left of Nelson. If the president has been clear about anything, it’s that the next step will be a veto–expected to come sometime next week. After that, Senator Levin says the Senate will look to a new version of the Iraq supplemental which ties U.S. support to political benchmarks. Such a measure will prove challenging to pass, since it will get relatively few Republican votes, and House liberals feel they have already made a big sacrifice to give up on an immediate withdrawal. Depending on how it’s drafted, the White House may make the case for a veto of that bill, as well. Keep in mind that the administration’s April 15 deadline has already passed, and they are making the case that combat operations have already begun to suffer because of Congress’ failure to act in a timely fashion. Further, while the Democrats previously said that the ‘real deadline’ was May 1, they will have a hard time meeting even that. Reid and Pelosi will face a strong challenge to their leadership skills.

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