IHME model now forecasts earlier COVID-19 peak, more deaths in Georgia

Updated COVID-19 projections by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluations indicate a worsening situation in Georgia.

IHME, an independent health population research center at the University of Washington Medicine, now forecasts Georgia will reach a peak of 137 daily COVID-19 deaths on April 21.

Early last week, the IHME model showed Georgia would reach a high of 77 COVID-19 deaths a day on April 24. It now forecasts more COVID-19 deaths in the state by Aug. 4 – 3,413 rather than 2,648. IHME released updated projections Sunday.

The new projections show Georgia will reach a hospital-resource-use peak on April 20 rather than April 23. On April 20, the model suggests Georgia will have a shortage of 743 intensive care unit beds, which is higher than last week’s forecast shortage of 643 ICU beds.

As of Monday morning, the Georgia Department of Public Health reported 7,314 COVID-19 cases in the state – including 229 deaths – and 1,332 hospitalized.

COVID-19 is a respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus. The disease has caused at least 10,729 deaths in the U.S., with more than 362,000 confirmed cases in the country. COVID-19 symptoms appear within two to 14 days after exposure and include fever, cough, runny nose and difficulty breathing.

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