Sarah Palin quickly emerged as the front-runner after announcing a run for Congress in a summer special election, but Alaska Republicans are cautioning the former governor is far from a shoo-in.
Palin is well known and was immediately endorsed by former President Donald Trump upon entering the race to succeed Republican Rep. Don Young, who died last month after nearly 50 years in office. But the 2008 GOP vice presidential nominee faces obstacles ahead of the Aug. 16 special election, chief among them lingering voter resentment over her resignation from the governor’s mansion in 2009 before her only term expired — ostensibly to pursue political fame and fortune.
That was Republican candidate Nick Begich III’s line of attack against Palin on Monday.
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“I think most Alaskans remember her as someone who quit on Alaska while she was governor. Why should we trust her to not quit on Alaska now? This isn’t reality TV, this is real life,” Begich said in a statement provided to the Washington Examiner.
As for whether Trump endorsing his rival presents an insurmountable challenge, Begich scoffed. “That’s nice for Sarah,” he said. “Our campaign is excited about all the endorsements we’ve been receiving from respected Alaskans from across the state who are going to be the ones actually voting in and deciding this election.”
Trump, who is quite popular with grassroots Republicans, especially in red states like Alaska, offered Palin, 58, effusive praise as he delivered his “complete and total” endorsement.
“Sarah has been a champion for Alaska values, Alaska energy, Alaska jobs, and the great people of Alaska. She was one of the most popular Governors because she stood up to corruption in both State Government and the Fake News Media,” Trump said as part of a lengthy statement in which he also thanked her for backing his presidential bid in 2016. “Sarah Palin is tough and smart and will never back down.”
Palin has the advantage of being perhaps the most recognizable Republican running in the June 11 special election primary despite last appearing on a ballot in Alaska nearly 14 years ago. Irregularly scheduled congressional contests are often low turnout affairs, and this dynamic, aided by Trump’s seal of approval, could clinch the election for the former mayor of Wasilla, where she still lives.
“With low turnout and a small and motivated base, she’s a strong contender to win it,” a Republican insider in Alaska said.
But Palin might not be as loved as she is known. Her premature exit from the governor’s mansion left a blemish on her reputation in Alaska for her opponents in the special election to exploit — even after so much time has passed. “If you ran a poll, her approval would be underwater,” a knowledgeable Republican operative said. “Does Trump’s endorsement change that? Who knows?”
Palin’s other challenge is Alaska’s new top-four, ranked-choice system for deciding elections. The scheme could undercut Palin’s natural assets (and the GOP’s natural partisan advantage) and propel other Republican candidates, and possibly a Democrat, ahead of her.
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The system, implemented via voter initiative in the 2020 elections, created an all-party primary, with the four top vote-getters in that contest advancing to the general election, regardless of partisan affiliation. The ensuing general election is decided by rank-choice voting. The special election to pick a successor to Young will mark the first statewide contest in which this procedure is up and running.
Fifty candidates have filed to run for Alaska’s at-large House seat, according to the Anchorage Daily News. Palin’s campaign could not immediately be reached for comment; a link to her campaign’s website goes directly to a page reserved specifically for online contributions.
