Joe Biden’s lead in a popular average of national presidential primary polls has slipped to just 0.3 percentage points over Elizabeth Warren, well within polling margins of error and pushing him close to ending his long reign as the front-runner in the crowded field of candidates.
RealClearPolitics calculates a polling average using the four most recent polls in its database of Democratic presidential primary polls. The former vice president stands at 26.3%, the Massachusetts senator at 26.0%, and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders at 14.3%.
An Investor’s Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence poll released Monday helped to push Warren to just 0.3 percentage points behind Biden in the average. She bested Biden for the first time in the poll, taking 27% support to Biden’s 26%, while Sanders came in third place with 10% support. Warren’s support was up 3 percentage points from the same poll in September, while Biden’s fell by 2%. The poll has a margin of error of 3.3%.
Before the Investor’s Business Daily/TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence poll, Warren was 0.6 percentage points behind Biden, with the former vice president at 26.3% and Warren at 25.7%.
Biden has maintained around a double-digit lead over his competitors in the RealClearPolitics average for almost all of his candidacy. But Warren steadily rose in the polls over the summer and started to beat Biden in some polls in September. Analysts frequently look to the average in order to avoid cherry-picking individual outlier polls to interpret a trend.
The Massachusetts senator has already surpassed Biden in the RealClearPolitics recent polls of likely Iowa caucus-goers. but the former vice president remains ahead of Warren in polls of Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire and South Carolina.
[Read more: With a spring in her step, Warren, 70, breezes past scrutiny of her age]
