Republicans already happy with their House gains during the 2020 election could gain even more ground during the 2022 midterm elections after next year’s redistricting process plays out.
“If you thought Ohio Republicans’ 12R-4D map this past decade was an aggressive gerrymander, just wait until you see this 13R-2D (!) map, which could wipe out half of the Dems’ House majority in just one state,” noted Cook Political Report analyst Dave Wasserman on Twitter.
If you thought Ohio Republicans’ 12R-4D map this past decade was an aggressive gerrymander, just wait until you see this 13R-2D (!) map, which could wipe out half of Dems’ House majority in just one state. pic.twitter.com/FpffOj6ML3
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 23, 2020
While Wasserman’s map is not an official representation of what Ohio’s congressional delegation would look like in 2022, it is a preview of what Republicans might do to improve their position during the redistricting process.
“Yes, there’s a new commission in OH, but Republicans could easily go around it if it deadlocks…and this map would put both #OH09 Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) and #OH13 Rep. Tim Ryan (D) in brutal districts that voted for Trump by 10+,” Wasserman continued. “And even worse for Dems, the 13R-2D map above *complies* w/ OH’s new anti-gerrymander criteria, including keeping the cities of Cleveland & Cincinnati whole and minimizing split counties.”
And even worse for Dems, the 13R-2D map above *complies* w/ OH’s new anti-gerrymandering criteria, including keeping the cities of Cleveland & Cincinnati whole and minimizing split counties.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 23, 2020
Republicans will have control over a large chunk of redistricting thanks to their performance in down-ballot races during the 2020 election. Despite predictions of a possible “blue wave,” Democrats were not able to flip a single state legislative chamber away from Republican control in 2020. In many states, the state legislature controls the process of drawing new congressional districts every 10 years.
“Republicans are set to control the redistricting of 188 congressional seats — or 43 percent of the entire House of Representatives. By contrast, Democrats will control the redistricting of, at most, 73 seats, or 17 percent,” noted FiveThirtyEight statistician Nate Silver after the election.
“How did Republicans pull that off?” Silver asked. “By winning almost every 2020 election in which control of redistricting was at stake.”
Wasserman pointed out that the GOP’s stunning victory will have implications reaching far past Ohio.
“FL is a big problem for Dems in many respects, including redistricting next year,” Wasserman said on Twitter. “It wouldn’t be that hard for Rs to convert the current 15-12 Trump district map into an 18-11 Trump district map, as I’ve drawn below.”
FL is a big problem for Dems in many respects, including redistricting next year. It wouldn’t be that hard for Rs to convert the current 15-12 Trump district map into an 18-11 Trump district map, as I’ve drawn below. pic.twitter.com/E2YTBfx2hM
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 22, 2020
“I’d expect Rs to attempt to purge Miami Beach and Brickell from #FL27 to try to shore up Rep.-elect Maria Elvira Salazar (R),” he continued. “It’s a safe bet there will also be new, safely R districts (#FL28 and #FL29) in high-growth areas of south & north central FL.”
“FL Republicans could try to get even more aggressive, but would risk courts striking their map down under FL’s Fair Districts amendment,” he said. “This map simply protects every sitting Dem & GOP incumbent and gives Rs both of FL’s new seats.”
FL Republicans could try to get even more aggressive, but would risk courts striking their map down under FL’s Fair Districts amendment. This map simply protects every sitting Dem & GOP incumbent and gives Rs both of FL’s new seats.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) November 22, 2020
After the 2010 census and that year’s Republican wave, the GOP held a strong redistricting position that has made the congressional district map Republican-friendly for the last decade. The GOP is exiting this year’s election under remarkably similar circumstances to 2010.
“After 2010, Republicans controlled 54 of the 99 state legislative chambers,” noted Commentary editor Noah Rothman on Twitter. “They had trifectas in 23 states to Democrats’ 15. After 2020, 59 chambers are held by Republicans, 37 by Democrats.”
“And guess what,” he continued. “Republicans have 23 trifectas to Democrats’ 15.”
After 2010, Republicans controlled 54 of 99 state legislative chambers. They had trifectas in 23 states to Democrats’ 15. After 2020, 59 chambers are held by Republicans, 37 by Democrats. And guess what? Republicans have 23 trifectas to Democrats’ 15.
— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) November 7, 2020
While redistricting is set to favor Republican candidates for the next decade, Democrats have a more immediate problem ahead of the 2022 elections. Having seen their House majority shrink dramatically in this year’s election, Republicans will only have to net a single-digit gain to retake the lower chamber in 2022.
Historically, the party that does not hold the White House makes large gains during midterm elections. Democrats had hoped to overcome that by expanding their majority this year, but those aspirations failed to materialize.
“I mean, we are not well-positioned for 2022. We’re just not. It’s really unfair for [Pelosi] to stay in that position, that she can hold the gavel for two more years when we all are assuming that 2022 is probably going to be a bloodbath,” a Democratic lawmaker told the Hill last week.
“Not only did we not pick up 10 or 15 seats, it’s going to be a net loss for House Dems. This is supposed to be an opportunity for us to expand the map, grow the majority, and we squandered that, especially knowing how important it was to do that in 2020, to build that bulwark, that cushion that we need for 2022.”
Rep. Tom Emmer, who leads the Republican’s House campaign arm, is feeling more optimistic about his party’s prospects, although he warned that the GOP still has more work to do.
“People need to understand that we had some success this cycle, but it didn’t just happen because you said we were going to have successes — we worked hard. This challenge is no different — we have to work even harder this time,” Emmer told the Hill.
“This is not going to be an easy feat, no matter what people say. We can’t listen to the pollsters. We can’t listen to the prognosticators. You’ve got to know that it’s up to you — you’ve got to make your own luck.”
