Virginia’s campaign for governor ends Tuesday with polling suggesting a tight contest between Republican Ed Gillespie and Democrat Ralph Northam, leaving Libertarians yet again a potentially influential factor.
Libertarian Cliff Hyra, a patent attorney, is unlikely to win a large share of the vote, with polls suggesting 3 percent at most, but it’s a clear possibility he will take more votes than the race’s margin of victory.
The third party’s leaders say that doesn’t matter, and that Hyra’s individual-rights platform is worth supporting regardless of electoral consequences — not a new argument for Libertarians, twice accused of contributing to recent Republican defeats in Virginia.
The party’s 2013 candidate for governor Robert Sarvis took 6.5 percent, more than double Democrat Terry McAuliffe’s margin of victory over Republican Ken Cuccinelli. In 2014, Sarvis scored 2.4 percent in a Senate race, three times Democrat Mark Warner’s margin over Gillespie.
“People should vote for the best candidate on the ballot, and can sleep at night knowing they did all they could,” said Michael Bartley, a Libertarian candidate for Virginia’s House of Delegates. “The more people that vote for us, even if we lose, the more the winner will have to change their positions.”
Wes Benedict, a Virginia resident and executive director of the Libertarian National Committee, said he already voted for Hyra, and that others should not fear tipping the outcome.
“Libertarians want to legalize marijuana to prevent police abuse, empty prisons and cut taxes. We would dramatically cut most government spending,” he said. “If you support Libertarian principles, voting Republican or Democrat is a wasted vote.”
Benedict added: “Our goal is a world set free in our lifetime that’s based on respect for individual rights. We have much work to do and we don’t increase the respect for our movement by cheating on our own candidates with the serial abusers from the Democratic and Republican parties.”
Experts aren’t yet sure if the Libertarian candidate’s vote tallies will be large enough to spawn theories about a “spoiler effect” after the election.
“If Northam wins by less than 1 percent and Hyra gets 1 or 2 percent, there’s going to be some talk,” said Geoffrey Skelley of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
“Libertarian voters tend to be more Republican than not,” he said.
Still, Skelley said it’s too soon to analyze the effect, as Gillespie may eek out a win.
“A narrow defeat [for Gillespie] is the most likely outcome, but it is possible that Gillespie will win,” he said.
Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, said the school’s polling — which has given Northam a larger edge than some polls — doesn’t suggest Hyra voters will swing the outcome.
“If the race is as forecasted, his less than 2 percent vote should be inconsequential,” she said. “That said, if the race is close, then it could be decisive.”
Bitecofer said Democrats historically run into turnout issues, but that “in this case, the Democrats are more likely to be fired up now that they are out of power.”
Hyra was unavailable to discuss his campaign Monday, but campaign director John Vaught LaBeaume said he expected “a pretty even split in second choices of Hyra voters, among those who would even vote at all,” making concern about a spoiler effect unfounded.
Sarvis, the Libertarian who fought claims he handed elections to Democrats, a contention data may support, said residents should not hold their noses while voting.
“If I were still in Virginia, I’d definitely vote for Cliff Hyra,” said Sarvis, who moved to Florida for his wife’s job.
“If more people voted outside the two major parties, maybe we could get, among other things, a system that enables us to vote our full preferences and that produces better candidates and better outcomes rather than having to be strategic in our voting and having to accept benighted major-party candidates,” he said.
