The White House denied that Tuesday’s special congressional election in Georgia was a referendum on President Trump — but maybe they will want to rethink that.
Republican Karen Handel, the 55-year-old former Georgia secretary of state, defeated 30-year-old Democrat Jon Ossoff, 53-47. Trump took to Twitter to celebrate the “huge win” afterward.
“Congratulations to Karen Handel on her big win in Georgia 6th,” he tweeted. “Fantastic job, we are all very proud of you!”
As suburban Atlanta voters headed to the polls Tuesday to decide who would represent Georgia’s 6th Congressional District, Ossoff was powered by anti-Trump energy and the $23 million he raised for his campaign, mostly from outside the district.
Ossoff came just short of winning the seat in April, when he finished nearly 30 points ahead of Handel in the first round of voting. But the fractured group of GOP candidates managed to hold him under 50 percent and force a runoff in a district that has been in Republican hands since former House Speaker Newt Gingrich first won it in 1978.
Republicans and outside conservative groups struck back with television ads and on-the-ground operations to help Handel’s underfunded campaign fight off a Democratic surge. The late polling suggested a tilt back toward the Republicans, although the race remained too close to call.
White House press secretary Sean Spicer wasn’t ready to declare victory during Tuesday’s press briefing, suggesting that if the Democrats won it would mean little for the president. “If you look historically, special elections generally don’t foretell the outcome of races multiple years down the road,” Spicer told reporters.
“This is a … district that the president won by one point. It’s obviously going to be competitive, but we’ll have to see tonight. Obviously, that’s up to the people of Georgia’s 6th District to decide,” he added.
Special elections aren’t a consistent predictor of future election results, including next year’s midterms or the 2020 presidential race. But the outcome of this more than $50 million Georgia contest could have major implications for Trump.
As Spicer noted, Trump narrowly won the district. But its most recent congressman, GOP Rep. Tom Price, won more than 60 percent of the vote at the same time. Mitt Romney beat former President Barack Obama by a similar margin there in the 2012 presidential election.
Trump underperformed relative to a typical Republican in the 6th District, partly because affluent, GOP-leaning suburban voters did not support him as strongly as they did candidates like Price and Romney. If this trend had applied to down-ballot Republicans like Handel, it would have been a positive sign for the size of the Democrats’ 2018 map.
An Ossoff win a conservative-leaning district would also have helped Democratic fundraising and candidate recruitment. It would have shown that Democrats could compete beyond the 23 Republican-held districts won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Republicans emphasized that notwithstanding Ossoff’s relatively centrist campaign, a Democratic win would make it more likely that House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., could become speaker again. Ossoff has raised considerable sums from California donors and Republican ads have tied him to Hollywood liberal icons Jane Fonda, Rosie O’Donnell and Kathy Griffin. Griffin was recently depicted holding a replica of the president’s severed head.
But Handel winning despite complaints about her campaign, Trump’s low approval ratings and a well-funded opponent could dampen expectations of a Democratic wave next year and hurt their candidate recruitment. This marks the third straight special election loss by the Democrats, following one in Montana where the winning Republican candidate assaulted a reporter the night before voters went to the polls.
A Democratic win in Georgia Tuesday would have imperiled Trump’s legislative agenda by making it more difficult for Republican leaders to pressure endangered lawmakers into taking tough votes. A Senate vote on a bill partially repealing and replacing Obamacare looms. An Ossoff win would have complicated the healthcare bill’s already precarious position with House centrists.
In a twist, the Georgia 6th Congressional District seat became open because Price resigned to serve as secretary of Health and Human Services under Trump.
Tax reform and an infrastructure bill, both of which have the potential to accelerate growth, create jobs and raise wages as Trump promised during his campaign, are also stalled. Georgia’s results could embolden Republicans to revive them.
Anything that increases the prospects of a Democratic House majority threatens the Trump presidency more directly. Democrats would gain subpoena power and ramp up existing congressional Russia investigations. Depending on the direction of special counsel Robert Mueller’s Russia probe, it would become relevant if Democrats controlled the House since it is where impeachment proceedings start.
Trump tweeted in support of Handel and against Ossoff on Monday. Since April, Trump has joined Republicans in framing the race as a Georgia vs. Hollywood showdown. It’s a closing argument they won Tuesday night.
