And it’s unlikely Democrats will negate the GOP’s advantage in the fall in the case of a contingent election. That’s where the presidential race is decided by the House of Representative’s state delegations voting as a bloc after the new Congress is sworn in on Jan. 6. The Senate weighs in on the vice presidency.

First, Democrats have to hang onto the delegations they have amid a turbulent cycle.

The party has candidates in tough reelection campaigns in several states, such as Arizona, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Virginia. In Iowa, their 3-to-1 lead on Republicans could be wiped out if Reps. Abby Finkenauer and Cindy Axne don’t win and they lose the seat being vacated by Rep. Dave Loebsack.

Then, Democrats would need to change the compositions of four delegations.

There are a handful of states where a single seat gain would flip the delegation in the Democrats’ favor. They include those held by Alaska Rep. Don Young, Florida Rep. Ross Spano, and Pennsylvania Reps. Scott Perry or Brian Fitzgerald. Then, there are those that are now open due to departures by Michigan Rep. Justin Amash, a Libertarian, and Montana GOP Rep. Greg Gianforte.

But there are lots of “ifs” involved in those scenarios. For example, vulnerable Democratic Michigan Reps. Elissa Slotkin and Haley Stevens would have to be successful in their own bids.

Democrats such as Matt Bennett, the co-founder of think tank Third Way, have floated more ambitious pathways. He listed picking up four seats in North Carolina or six in Texas.

“None of that is as crazy as it sounds,” he tweeted.

Conjecture about settling the 2020 general election through the House of Representatives has been stoked by reports that the Trump campaign is also thinking about the possibility.

“Everything is about the base, as he calls it,” Carl Bernstein, of Watergate fame, told CNN, referring to the president. “And getting the base to somehow reelect him or get him close enough to reelection that he can then put into authoritarian practice. Some kind of mechanism that will allow him to hold onto power, perhaps throw the election into the House of Representatives, which indeed is being talked about in the White House.”

Article II of the Constitution, as modified by the 12th and 20th Amendments, provides the framework for a contingent election.

Under the procedure, Trump or Biden would have to receive a majority (or 26 state delegation votes). If they can’t agree on a nominee, then it’s marked as “divided,” forfeiting its say on the matter, though the process can be conducted over multiple rounds. If the House doesn’t reach a consensus by noon Jan. 20, Inauguration Day, the vice-president-elect becomes the acting president, or House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, if the Senate has failed to act too and Democrats maintain control of the House, naming Pelosi their leader.

Trump is trailing Biden in national polls by an average of 6.4 percentage points to 7.6 points, depending on the prognosticator.

Last month, the Cook Political Report estimated Biden would earn 308 electoral votes from states the nonpartisan election forecaster described as solidly, likely and leaning Democratic, if the election were held today. Trump fell short of the 270 threshold. He had 187 electoral votes from states considered for the GOP, requiring 43 votes from toss-up states and another 40 from the Democratic-tilting column to make up the difference.

RealClearPolitics is less bullish, giving Biden a 212 to 115 electoral vote lead on Trump, not counting 211 votes from states deemed too close to call.