Until October 26, perched on the French coast of the English Channel, the “Jungle” refugee camp housed over 6,000 migrants. Living conditions were awful.
Today however, the Jungle is closed, and its previous inhabitants are in better accommodations. That’s a victory for human morality, but it’s also good for British security. While it was open, the jungle gave ISIS—also known as ISIL and Daesh—a jump-off point to attack the U.K. In recent years, Britain has spent millions of pounds improving security around the Jungle. Their fear was that ISIS suspects might join with human smugglers to enter Britain covertly. As I’ve explained, “northern France remains infested with well-organized, well-funded human-smuggling groups. Like their Mexican counterparts, they care little for anything but hard cash—and Daesh external-operations units have an abundance of it.”
But be under no illusions, ISIS’s threat to Britain is far from over.
This truth was proved by a ISIS video earlier this year. In it, the group threatened locations in London including Buckingham Palace, a farmers market, and Tower Bridge. But as I noted at the time, the video’s final scene teased British Intelligence Services to decrypt a coded message. Still, that code wasn’t simply an attempt to spread fear, it was also a smirk. ISIS knows that even the very best signal intelligence services—America’s NSA and Britain’s GCHQ—struggle to access encrypted communication platforms such as Telegram. The terrorists use these apps to for covert communications.
The problem is not so much ISIS leaders in Syria, but who those leaders are talking to around the world.
After all, a recent Interpol report suggests that a few dozen ISIS terrorists are currently in Europe preparing attacks. Unfortunately, as I’ve noted, ISIS cells in Europe benefit from capable but compartmented support networks. These are dedicated but patient murderers committed to what they believe is an ordained mission. France and Germany are most at risk, but Britain remains under serious threat.
We know that because senior ISIS officers have already visited the British mainland.
Enter ISIS officer Mohamed Abrini. Prior to orchestrating ISIS’s March attacks in Brussels (after which he became known as the “man in the hat”), Abrini visited Birmingham. This week, two men were convicted in British court of providing $3,800 to Abrini. But while British security services suggest that neither Abrini nor his conspirators were planning U.K. attacks, two concerns stand out.
First, those who met Abrini employed advanced counter-surveillance techniques and the use of cutout intermediaries. While the two key parties are now in prison, the trial evidence suggests others individuals were also involved. Regardless, these counter-surveillance techniques epitomize ISIS operations abroad. They are not indicative of lone wolves.
Second, Abrini was able to gain access to the U.K. via the nation’s main international airport. That he was able to do so proves the lie that Western intelligence services know nearly everything all the time. Indeed, other reports suggest Paris ringleader, Abdelhamid Abaaoud, may also have visited the U.K.
All this speaks to another strategic reality. The fight against ISIS is going well in Iraq and Syria, but the group remains determined and resourceful. While President Obama yesterday declared his counter-ISIS strategy a success, it’s too soon to call victory. And ISIS’s threat to America remains real. Alongside
lone wolf losers such as Omar Mateen, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s hordes would love to infiltrate a cell into the U.S.
Tom Rogan is a foreign policy columnist for National Review, a domestic policy columnist for Opportunity Lives, a former panelist on The McLaughlin Group and a senior fellow at the Steamboat Institute. Follow him on Twitter @TomRtweets.
